arXiv:2512.19705v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study how generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) reshapes financial analysts' information production. Using the 2023 integration of GenAI into FACTSET as a plausibly exogenous change in AI access, we find that FACTSET-associated reports become markedly richer--featuring 26% more distinct information sources, 24% broader topical coverage, and 21% more analytical methods--while also improving timeliness. However, these gains do not uniformly improve decision quality: relative forecast accuracy declines when analysts face greater information-processing demands. Yet, a machine-learning benchmark processing the same observable inputs shows no analogous deterioration, pointing to a human processing constraint rather than poorer underlying information. Placebo tests using other data vendors make a common platform-wide technology trend unlikely. Overall, GenAI relaxes information-acquisition constraints while making human attention a more important bottleneck.

arXiv:2605.23916v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM tool registries function as unregulated advertising platforms: providers write free-text descriptions that agents use for selection, yet no measurement infrastructure -- no viewability standard, quality score, or outcome audit -- exists to make this market accountable. We provide the first systematic framework, combining 17,700+ trials across five LLMs and ten domains with a constructive registry design prescription. Legal puffery alone (subjective superlatives, benefit framing) captures 100% of the optimization effect; fabricated claims add zero incremental bias -- rendering FTC enforcement of deceptive advertising rules ineffective against the active mechanism. Disclosure fails structurally: system-prompt warnings produce zero measurable effect for four of five models, and behavioral ceilings leave no headroom for label-based correction. Superlatives are the dominant single feature (SBC = +0.35). Registry-layer description normalization achieves first-best welfare model-independently. We propose separating selection-facing descriptions (structured, registry-controlled) from marketing-facing descriptions (provider-authored, shown post-selection), and introduce the Agent Attention Quality Score to distinguish capability from copywriting.

arXiv:2605.23958v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: M365 Copilot is used every week by millions of people across more than a million companies around the world as part of their workflows. Uniquely positioned in the AI landscape given its near-exclusive use for work purposes, M365 Copilot can offer a clear picture of how people use AI for work and where that usage may expand next. This paper characterizes that usage through direct classification of user interactions with M365 Copilot Chat. Based on an anonymized and privacy-preserving analysis of a sample of approximately 5.5 million sessions, we combine a learned classification of user intent with a classification of O*NET work activities done with M365 Copilot Chat. We find that M365 Copilot is emerging as an everyday assistant for knowledge work: writing dominates, but users also rely on it for information retrieval, analysis, decision making and strategizing, and evaluating and diagnosing programs and systems, among others. Information seeking tasks remain common, but time trends suggest a relative shift away from ``chat as search'' and toward content and communication-related work. Comparisons across occupational groupings and to work done in the labor market further show that usage is broad but uneven, where the relative share of work done with M365 Copilot Chat cuts across jobs in some cases and is occupation-specific in others. Areas of relative underrepresentation in the labor market suggest the next frontier for enterprise AI adoption.

arXiv:2605.25505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is the first automation wave to reach high-cognitive tasks at scale, yet its effects on intra-urban inequality remain largely unknown. Using 5 million job postings from Beijing (2018--2024), we construct a neighborhood-level GenAI Exposure Index by aggregating task-level assessments from five leading large language models. We examine the spatial, structural and causal mechanisms of this shock. We find that GenAI exposure is highly concentrated in the city's core districts, deepening the intra-urban AI divide. Since 2023, high-exposure neighborhoods have experienced wage stagnation even as they continue to attract high-skilled workers -- a "high-skill trap." This wage penalty is driven by task de-skilling and intensified labor-market crowding. A difference-in-differences design centered on ChatGPT's release supports a causal interpretation. These findings challenge the prevailing theory of skill-biased technological change and provide a basis for inclusive AI governance in global technology hubs.

arXiv:2409.08379v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are reshaping knowledge work, yet their impact on voluntary, self-guided open innovation forums (contributors choose tasks without managerial direction) may differ fundamentally from effects observed in organizational settings. We study this question in open-source software development, where individuals' contributions collectively drive innovation at a community level. Unlike product innovation, where typologies for classifying innovation are well established, knowledge work in open-source settings calls for a distinction grounded in the cognitive demand a task places on the contributor. Burgeoning literature distinguishes substantive contributions, which require creative problem formulation to introduce new functionality, from incremental contributions, which draw on comprehension of existing code to maintain and refine it. We exploit a natural experiment around GitHub Copilot's launch in October 2021, where Copilot supported languages like Python while not supporting R for business reasons, creating an exogenous partition between otherwise comparable ecosystems. Using three complementary identification strategies and two classification approaches, we find that Copilot availability increases open-source contributions by 28 to 40 percent. The increase in incremental contributions is significantly larger than the increase in substantive contributions across all specifications. This disparity is more pronounced in projects with higher activity levels and widens following a model upgrade: LLMs function more effectively when existing context helps define the problem and constrain solutions, tilting collaborative innovation toward exploitation of established codebases rather than exploration of new functionality. This paper provides a rare instance of causal field evidence on LLM effects, given the speed at which GenAI has exploded across the knowledge economy.

arXiv:2508.12479v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Min-max optimization arises in many domains such as game theory, adversarial machine learning, etc. For these problems, gradient-based methods are well understood and enjoy strong guarantees. However, in the absence of convexity or concavity, existing approaches study convergence to an approximate saddle point or first-order stationary points, which may be arbitrarily far from global optima. In this work, we present an algorithmic framework for computing the global minimax value in convex--non-concave and non-convex--concave min-max optimization. For convex--non-concave min-max problems, we use a reformulation that transforms the problem into a non-concave--convex max-min optimization problem with suitably defined feasible sets and objective function. This reformulation can be viewed as an extension of Sion's minimax theorem to the convex--non-concave setting. We then introduce EXOTIC -- an Exact, Optimistic, Tree-based algorithm for solving the reformulated max-min problem. EXOTIC combines an iterative convex optimization solver for the inner minimization with an optimistic hierarchical tree search for the outer maximization, inspired by StroquOOL~\cite{bartlett2019simple}. Unlike StroquOOL, which assumes stochastic zero-mean noisy evaluations, EXOTIC handles deterministic, biased, and budget-dependent evaluation errors arising from finite-time solutions of the inner convex subproblems. We establish an upper bound on its optimality gap. The same framework also applies to non-convex--concave min-max optimization. Empirically, EXOTIC outperforms gradient-based methods on popular benchmarks from the literature. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of EXOTIC by computing security strategies in multi-player games with three or more players -- a computationally challenging task that, to our knowledge, no prior method solves exactly.

arXiv:2604.03338v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autonomous AI systems can now generate complete economics research papers, but they substantially underperform human-authored publications in head-to-head comparisons. This paper decomposes the quality gap into two independent components: research idea quality and execution quality. Using a two-model ensemble of fine-tuned language models trained on publication decisions (Gong, Li, and Zhou, 2026) to evaluate idea quality and a comprehensive six-dimension rubric assessed by Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite -- the same model family used as the APE tournament judge, ensuring methodological consistency -- to evaluate execution quality, we analyze 953 economics papers -- 912 AI-generated papers from the APE project and 41 human papers published in the American Economic Review and AEJ: Economic Policy. The idea quality gap is large (Cohen's d = 2.23, p

arXiv:2604.01363v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose that AI automation is a continuum between: (i) crashing waves where AI capabilities surge abruptly over small sets of tasks, and (ii) rising tides where the increase in AI capabilities is more continuous and broad-based. We test for these effects in preliminary evidence from an ongoing evaluation of AI capabilities across over 3,000 broad-based tasks derived from the U.S. Department of Labor O*NET categorization that are text-based and thus LLM-addressable. Based on more than 17,000 evaluations by workers from these jobs, we find little evidence of crashing waves (in contrast to recent work by METR), but substantial evidence that rising tides are the primary form of AI automation. AI performance is high and improving rapidly across a wide range of tasks. We estimate that, in 2024-Q2, AI models successfully complete tasks that take humans approximately 3-4 hours with about a 50% success rate, increasing to about 65% by 2025-Q3. If recent trends in AI capability growth persist, this pace of AI improvement implies that LLMs will be able to complete most text-related tasks with success rates of, on average, 80%-95% by 2029 at a minimally sufficient quality level. Achieving near-perfect success rates at this quality level or comparable success rates at superior quality would require several additional years. These AI capability improvements would impact the economy and labor market as organizations adopt AI, which could have a substantially longer timeline.

arXiv:2604.01364v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Society 5.0 and Industry 5.0 call for human-centric technology integration, yet the concept lacks an operational definition that can be measured, optimized, or evaluated at the firm level. This paper addresses three gaps. First, existing models of human-AI complementarity treat the augmentation function phi(D) as exogenous -- dependent only on the stock of AI deployed -- ignoring that two firms with identical technology investments achieve radically different augmentation outcomes depending on how the workplace is organized around the human-AI interaction. Second, no multi-dimensional instrument exists linking workplace design choices to augmentation productivity. Third, the Society 5.0 literature proposes human-centricity as a normative aspiration but provides no formal criterion for when it is economically optimal. We make four contributions. (1) We endogenize the augmentation function as phi(D, W), where W is a five-dimensional workplace design vector -- AI interface design, decision authority allocation, task orchestration, learning loop architecture, and psychosocial work environment -- and prove that human-centric design is profit-maximizing when the workforce's augmentable cognitive capital exceeds a critical threshold. (2) We conduct a PRISMA-guided systematic review of 120 papers (screened from 6,096 records) to map the evidence base for each dimension. (3) We provide secondary empirical evidence from Colombia's EDIT manufacturing survey (N=6,799 firms) showing that management practice quality amplifies the return to technology investment (interaction coefficient 0.304, p

arXiv:2603.29121v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting an AI accuracy level, from no automation through partial human-AI collaboration to full automation. On the supply side, we estimate an AI production function via scaling-law experiments linking performance to data, compute, and model size. Because AI systems exhibit predictable but diminishing returns to these inputs, the cost of higher accuracy is convex: good performance may be inexpensive, but near-perfect accuracy is disproportionately costly. Full automation is therefore often not cost-minimizing; partial automation, where firms retain human workers for residual tasks, frequently emerges as the equilibrium. On the demand side, we introduce an entropy-based measure of task complexity that maps model accuracy into a labor substitution ratio, quantifying human labor displacement at each accuracy level. We calibrate the framework with O*NET task data, a survey of 3,778 domain experts, and GPT-4o-derived task decompositions, implementing it in computer vision. Task complexity shapes substitution: low-complexity tasks see high substitution, while high-complexity tasks favor limited partial automation. Scale of deployment is a key determinant: AI-as-a-Service and AI agents spread fixed costs across users, sharply expanding economically viable tasks. At the firm level, cost-effective automation captures approximately 11% of computer-vision-exposed labor compensation; under economy-wide deployment, this share rises sharply. Since other AI systems exhibit similar scaling-law economics, our mechanisms extend beyond computer vision, reinforcing that partial automation is often the economically rational long-run outcome, not merely a transitional phase.

arXiv:2510.23421v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The foundation model industry exhibits unprecedented concentration in critical inputs: semiconductors, energy infrastructure, elite talent, capital, and training data. Despite extensive sectoral analyses, no comprehensive framework exists for assessing overall industrial vulnerability. We develop the Artificial Intelligence Industrial Vulnerability Index (AIIVI) grounded in O-Ring production theory, recognizing that foundation model production requires simultaneous availability of non-substitutable inputs. Given extreme data opacity and rapid technological evolution, we implement a validated human-in-the-loop methodology using large language models to systematically extract indicators from dispersed grey literature, with complete human verification of all outputs. Applied to six state-of-the-art foundation model developers, AIIVI equals 0.82, indicating extreme vulnerability driven by compute infrastructure (0.85) and energy systems (0.90). While industrial policy currently emphasizes semiconductor capacity, energy infrastructure represents the emerging binding constraint. This methodology proves applicable to other fast-evolving, opaque industries where traditional data sources are inadequate.

arXiv:2507.20796v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: As large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as autonomous agents in markets and organizations, their behavior in strategic environments becomes economically consequential. We document that off-the-shelf LLM agents exhibit systematic deviations from payoff-sensitive behavior in canonical economic games, including excessive cooperation and limited responsiveness to incentives. We introduce a supervised fine-tuning approach that aligns agent behavior with explicit economic preferences. Specifically, we generate optimal strategies under two stylized utility specifications, homo economicus, which maximizes self-interest, and homo moralis, which incorporates Kantian universalizability, and use these utility-implied reasoning and strategies to guide fine-tuning. Fine-tuning on a small, theory-driven synthetic dataset induces persistent and interpretable shifts in strategic behavior. In applications to moral dilemmas and repeated duopoly pricing, agents aligned to different preference structures produce systematically distinct equilibrium outcomes and pricing dynamics. These results frame AI alignment in multi-agent settings as an objective-design problem and illustrate how economic theory can guide the design of strategically coherent AI agents.

arXiv:2603.07444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have enabled agent-based systems that aim to automate scientific research workflows. Most existing approaches focus on fully autonomous discovery, where AI systems generate research ideas, conduct analyses, and produce manuscripts with minimal human involvement. However, empirical research in economics and the social sciences poses additional constraints: research questions must be grounded in available datasets, identification strategies require careful design, and human judgment remains essential for evaluating economic significance. We introduce HLER (Human-in-the-Loop Economic Research), a multi-agent architecture that supports empirical research automation while preserving critical human oversight. The system orchestrates specialized agents for data auditing, data profiling, hypothesis generation, econometric analysis, manuscript drafting, and automated review. A key design principle is dataset-aware hypothesis generation, where candidate research questions are constrained by dataset structure, variable availability, and distributional diagnostics, reducing infeasible or hallucinated hypotheses. HLER further implements a two-loop architecture: a question quality loop that screens and selects feasible hypotheses, and a research revision loop where automated review triggers re-analysis and manuscript revision. Human decision gates are embedded at key stages, allowing researchers to guide the automated pipeline. Experiments on three empirical datasets show that dataset-aware hypothesis generation produces feasible research questions in 87% of cases (versus 41% under unconstrained generation), while complete empirical manuscripts can be produced at an average API cost of $0.8-$1.5 per run. These results suggest that Human-AI collaborative pipelines may provide a practical path toward scalable empirical research.

arXiv:2603.07893v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Hundreds of millions of farmers make high-stakes decisions under uncertainty about future weather. Forecasts can inform these decisions, but available choices and their risks and benefits vary between farmers. We introduce a decision-theory framework for designing useful forecasts in settings where the forecaster cannot prescribe optimal actions because farmers' circumstances are heterogeneous. We apply this framework to the case of seasonal onset of monsoon rains, a key date for planting decisions and agricultural investments in many tropical countries. We develop a system for tailoring forecasts to the requirements of this framework by blending systematically benchmarked artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction models with a new "evolving farmer expectations" statistical model. This statistical model applies Bayesian inference to historical observations to predict time-varying probabilities of first-occurrence events throughout a season. The blended system yields more skillful Indian monsoon forecasts at longer lead times than its components or any multi-model average. In 2025, this system was deployed operationally in a government-led program that delivered subseasonal monsoon onset forecasts to 38 million Indian farmers, skillfully predicting that year's early-summer anomalous dry period. This decision-theory framework and blending system offer a pathway for developing climate adaptation tools for large vulnerable populations around the world.

arXiv:2511.12876v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Economic decision-making depends not only on structured signals such as prices and taxes, but also on unstructured language, including peer dialogue and media narratives. While multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has shown promise in optimizing economic decisions, it struggles with the semantic ambiguity and contextual richness of language. We propose LAMP (Language-Augmented Multi-Agent Policy), a framework that integrates language into economic decision-making and narrows the gap to real-world settings. LAMP follows a Think-Speak-Decide pipeline: (1) Think interprets numerical observations to extract short-term shocks and long-term trends, caching high-value reasoning trajectories; (2) Speak crafts and exchanges strategic messages based on reasoning, updating beliefs by parsing peer communications; and (3) Decide fuses numerical data, reasoning, and reflections into a MARL policy to optimize language-augmented decision-making. Experiments in economic simulation show that LAMP outperforms both MARL and LLM-only baselines in cumulative return (+63.5%, +34.0%), robustness (+18.8%, +59.4%), and interpretability. These results demonstrate the potential of language-augmented policies to deliver more effective and robust economic strategies.

arXiv:2411.16574v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Algorithmic agents are used in a variety of competitive decision-making settings, including pricing contexts that range from online retail to residential home rental. We study the emergence of algorithmic collusion when competing agents employ multi-armed bandit algorithms and competition is modeled as a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma game. Notably, agents in our setting perform online learning with no prior model of game structure and have no direct knowledge of competitor states or actions, thus they cannot learn strategies that depend on these factors. These context-free bandits nonetheless frequently learn seemingly collusive behavior, a phenomenon we term naive collusion. Our results reveal that whether naive collusion emerges depends starkly on the choice of behavior policy employed by bandit learners. The mechanism underpinning the emergence of collusive outcomes is synchronicity in agent action plays, where synchronicity captures how often agents play the same action. We show that in the long-run, naive algorithmic collusion never emerges when both agents use a broad class of persistently random algorithms, including the epsilon-greedy algorithm without epsilon decay, sometimes emerges when both agents use greedy-in-the-limit algorithms which feature randomness during exploration but are asymptotically deterministic, and always emerges when both agents use deterministic bandit learning algorithms like those in the well-known upper confidence bound (UCB) family. We highlight market and algorithmic conditions under which one can and cannot predict a priori whether collusion will occur. Our findings have several policy implications: preventing pricing algorithms from conditioning their actions on competitor prices may not preclude algorithmic collusion, symmetry in algorithms may increase collusion potential, and the emergence of algorithmic collusion is path dependent.

arXiv:2601.13286v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has heightened interest in the labor market value of AI related skills, yet causal evidence on their role in hiring decisions remains scarce. This study examines whether AI skills serve as a positive hiring signal and whether they can offset conventional disadvantages such as older age or lower formal education. We conducted an experimental survey with 1,725 recruiters from the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany. Using a paired conjoint design, recruiters evaluated hypothetical candidates represented by synthetically designed resumes. Across three occupations of graphic design, office assistance, and software engineering, AI skills significantly increase interview invitation probabilities by approximately 8 to 15 percentage points, compared with candidates without such skills. AI credentials, such as university or company backed skill certificates, only lead to a moderate increase in invitation probabilities compared with self declaration of AI skills. AI skills also partially or fully offset disadvantages related to age and lower education, with effects strongest for office assistants, for whom formal AI certificates play a significant additional compensatory role. Effects are weaker for graphic designers, consistent with more skeptical recruiter attitudes toward AI in creative work. Finally, recruiters own background and AI usage significantly moderate these effects. Overall, the findings demonstrate that AI skills function as a powerful hiring signal and can mitigate traditional labor market disadvantages, with implications for workers skill acquisition strategies and firms recruitment practices.

arXiv:2508.21285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Emerging techniques in computer science make it possible to "brain scan" large language models (LLMs), identify the plain-English concepts that guide their reasoning, and steer them while holding other factors constant. We show that this approach can map LLM-generated economic forecasts to concepts such as sentiment, technical analysis, and timing, and compute their relative importance without reducing performance. We also show that models can be steered to be more or less risk-averse, optimistic, or pessimistic, which allows researchers to correct or simulate biases. The method is transparent, lightweight, and replicable for empirical research in the social sciences.

arXiv:2512.17979v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Industrial symbiosis fosters circularity by enabling firms to repurpose residual resources, yet its emergence is constrained by socio-spatial frictions that shape costs, matching opportunities, and market efficiency. Existing models often overlook the interaction between spatial structure, market design, and adaptive firm behavior, limiting our understanding of where and how symbiosis arises. We develop an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms trade byproducts through a spatially embedded double-auction market, with prices and quantities emerging endogenously from local interactions. Leveraging reinforcement learning, firms adapt their bidding strategies to maximize profit while accounting for transport costs, disposal penalties, and resource scarcity. Simulation experiments reveal the economic and spatial conditions under which decentralized exchanges converge toward stable and efficient outcomes. Counterfactual regret analysis shows that sellers' strategies approach a near Nash equilibrium, while sensitivity analysis highlights how spatial structures and market parameters jointly govern circularity. Our model provides a basis for exploring policy interventions that seek to align firm incentives with sustainability goals, and more broadly demonstrates how decentralized coordination can emerge from adaptive agents in spatially constrained markets.