arXiv:2603.07415v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Catastrophic forgetting remains a central challenge in continual learning (CL), yet lacks a unified information-theoretic explanation for why some architectures forget catastrophically while others do not. We introduce \emph{Context Channel Capacity} ($C_\mathrm{ctx}$), the mutual information between a CL architecture's context signal and its generated parameters, and prove that zero forgetting requires $C_\mathrm{ctx} \geq H(T)$, where $H(T)$ is the task identity entropy. We establish an \emph{Impossibility Triangle} -- zero forgetting, online learning, and finite parameters cannot be simultaneously satisfied by sequential state-based learners -- and show that conditional regeneration architectures (HyperNetworks) bypass this triangle by redefining parameters as function values rather than states. We validate this framework across 8 CL methods on Split-MNIST (1,130+ experiments over 86 days, 4 seeds each), showing that $C_\mathrm{ctx}$ perfectly predicts forgetting behavior: methods with $C_\mathrm{ctx} = 0$ (NaiveSGD, EWC, SI, LwF, CFlow) exhibit catastrophic forgetting (6--97\%), while methods with $C_\mathrm{ctx} \approx 1$ (HyperNetwork) achieve zero forgetting (98.8\% ACC). We further propose \emph{Wrong-Context Probing} (P5), a practical diagnostic protocol for measuring $C_\mathrm{ctx}$, and extend the framework to CIFAR-10 via a novel \emph{Gradient Context Encoder} that closes the oracle gap from 23.3pp to 0.7pp. A systematic taxonomy of 15+ closed research directions -- including the Hebbian null result (frozen random features outperform learned features), CFlow's $\theta_0$-memorizer phenomenon, and the $S_N$ symmetry barrier to column specialization -- provides the community with precisely diagnosed negative results. Our central design principle: \emph{architecture over algorithm} -- the context pathway must be structurally unbypassable.

arXiv:2602.22519v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: To operate reliably under changing conditions, complex systems require feedback on how effectively they use resources, not just whether objectives are met. Current AI systems process vast information to produce sophisticated predictions, yet predictions can appear successful while the underlying interaction with the environment degrades. What is missing is a principled measure of how much of the total information a system deploys is actually shared between its observations, actions, and outcomes. We prove this shared fraction, which we term bipredictability, P, is intrinsic to any interaction, derivable from first principles, and strictly bounded: P can reach unity in quantum systems, P equal to, or smaller than 0.5 in classical systems, and lower once agency (action selection) is introduced. We confirm these bounds in a physical system (double pendulum), reinforcement learning agents, and multi turn LLM conversations. These results distinguish agency from intelligence: agency is the capacity to act on predictions, whereas intelligence additionally requires learning from interaction, self-monitoring of its learning effectiveness, and adapting the scope of observations, actions, and outcomes to restore effective learning. By this definition, current AI systems achieve agency but not intelligence. Inspired by thalamocortical regulation in biological systems, we demonstrate a feedback architecture that monitors P in real time, establishing a prerequisite for adaptive, resilient AI.