arXiv:2603.06957v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study post-training linear autoregressive models with outcome and process rewards. Given a context $\boldsymbol{x}$, the model must predict the response $\boldsymbol{y} \in Y^N$, a sequence of length $N$ that satisfies a $\gamma$ margin condition, an extension of the standard separability to sequences. We prove that on test samples where the base model achieves a non-trivial likelihood $\alpha$, a variant of policy gradient (PG) can achieve likelihood $1 - \varepsilon$ with an essentially minimax optimal number of reward queries $\tilde{O}((\alpha^{-1} + \varepsilon^{-1})/\gamma^2)$. However, a barrier arises for going beyond the support of the base model. We prove that the overall expected error after post-training with outcome rewards is governed by a property of the base model called the Likelihood Quantile (LQ), and that variants of PG, while minimax optimal, may require a number of reward queries exponential in $N$ to go beyond this support, regardless of the pre-training algorithm. To overcome this barrier, we study post-training with a process reward model, and demonstrate how PG variants in this setting avoid the curse of dimensionality in $N$ via dependence on a token-level LQ. Along the way, we prove that under the margin condition, SGD with adaptive learning rate (LR) achieves a near optimal test error for statistical learning, and PG with adaptive LR achieves a near optimal number of mistakes for online learning while being computationally efficient whenever possible, both of which may be of independent interest.

arXiv:2603.06984v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent work has proposed powerful frameworks, rooted in causal theory, to quantify fairness. Causal inference has primarily emphasized the detection of \emph{average} treatment effects (ATEs), and subsequent notions of fairness have inherited this focus. In this paper, we build on previous concerns about regulation based on averages. In particular, we formulate the "causal masking problem" as a linear program that optimizes an alternative objective, such as maximizing profit or minimizing crime, while retaining a zero ATE (i.e., the ATE between a protected attribute and a decision). By studying the capabilities and limitations of causal masking, we show that optimization under ATE-based regulation may induce significant unequal treatment. We demonstrate that the divergence between true and causally masked fairness is driven by confounding, underscoring the importance of full conditional-independence testing when assessing fairness. Finally, we discuss statistical and information-theoretic limitations that make causally masked solutions very difficult to detect, allowing them to persist for long periods. These results argue that we must regulate fairness at the model-level, rather than at the decision level.

arXiv:2603.07313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Robustness under latent distribution shift remains challenging in partially observable reinforcement learning. We formalize a focused setting where an adversary selects a hidden initial latent distribution before the episode, termed an adversarial latent-initial-state POMDP. Theoretically, we prove a latent minimax principle, characterize worst-case defender distributions, and derive approximate best-response certificates with finite-sample guarantees, providing formal meaning to empirical training diagnostics. Empirically, using a Battleship benchmark, we demonstrate that targeted exposure to shifted latent distributions reduces average robustness gaps between Spread and Uniform distributions from 10.3 to 3.1 shots at equal budget. Furthermore, iterative best-response training exhibits budget-sensitive behavior entirely consistent with our approximate certificate theory. Ultimately, we show that for latent-initial-state problems, our framework yields precise diagnostic principles and confirms that structured adversarial exposure effectively mitigates worst-case vulnerabilities.

arXiv:2603.07887v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inference-time methods that aggregate and prune multiple samples have emerged as a powerful paradigm for steering large language models, yet we lack any principled understanding of their accuracy-cost tradeoffs. In this paper, we introduce a route to rigorously study such approaches using the lens of *particle filtering* algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Given a base language model and a *process reward model* estimating expected terminal rewards, we ask: *how accurately can we sample from a target distribution given some number of process reward evaluations?* Theoretically, we identify (1) simple criteria enabling non-asymptotic guarantees for SMC; (2) algorithmic improvements to SMC; and (3) a fundamental limit faced by all particle filtering methods. Empirically, we demonstrate that our theoretical criteria effectively govern the *sampling error* of SMC, though not necessarily its final *accuracy*, suggesting that theoretical perspectives beyond sampling may be necessary.

arXiv:2603.08349v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a new method for generating plausible counterfactual explanations for time series classification problems. The approach performs gradient-based optimization directly in the input space. To enforce plausibility, we integrate soft-DTW (dynamic time warping) alignment with $k$-nearest neighbors from the target class, which effectively encourages the generated counterfactuals to adopt a realistic temporal structure. The overall optimization objective is a multi-faceted loss function that balances key counterfactual properties. It incorporates losses for validity, sparsity, and proximity, alongside the novel soft-DTW-based plausibility component. We conduct an evaluation of our method against several strong reference approaches, measuring the key properties of the generated counterfactuals across multiple dimensions. The results demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance in validity while significantly outperforming existing approaches in distributional alignment with the target class, indicating superior temporal realism. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis highlights the critical limitations of existing methods in preserving realistic temporal structure. This work shows that the proposed method consistently generates counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers that are not only valid but also highly plausible and consistent with temporal patterns.

arXiv:2509.12783v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Inferring the biophysical parameters of conductance-based models (CBMs) from experimentally accessible recordings remains a central challenge in computational neuroscience. Spike times are the most widely available data, yet they reveal little about which combinations of ion channel conductances generate the observed activity. This inverse problem is further complicated by neuronal degeneracy, where multiple distinct conductance sets yield similar spiking patterns. We introduce a method that addresses this challenge by combining deep learning with Dynamic Input Conductances (DICs), a theoretical framework that reduces complex CBMs to three interpretable feedback components governing excitability and firing patterns. Our approach first maps spike times to DIC densities at threshold using a neural network that learns a low-dimensional representation of neuronal activity. The predicted DIC values are then used to generate degenerate CBM populations via an iterative compensation algorithm, ensuring compatibility with the intermediate target DICs, and thereby reproducing the corresponding firing patterns, even in high-dimensional models. Applied to two models, this algorithmic pipeline reconstructs spiking and bursting regimes with high accuracy and robustness to variability, including spike trains generated under noisy current injection mimicking physiological stochasticity. It produces diverse degenerate populations within milliseconds on standard hardware, enabling scalable and efficient inference from spike recordings alone. Together, this work positions DICs as a practical and interpretable link between experimentally observed activity and mechanistic models. By enabling fast and scalable reconstruction of degenerate populations directly from spike times, our approach provides a powerful way to investigate how neurons exploit conductance variability to achieve reliable computation.

arXiv:2010.01388v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Moments when a time series changes its behavior are called change points. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two change-point detection approaches based on neural networks and online learning. These algorithms demonstrate linear computational complexity and are suitable for change-point detection in large time series. We compare them with the best known algorithms on various synthetic and real world data sets. Experiments show that the proposed methods outperform known approaches. We also prove the convergence of the algorithms to the optimal solutions and describe conditions rendering current approach more powerful than offline one.

arXiv:2408.00329v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to small adversarial perturbations of the inputs, posing a significant challenge to their reliability and robustness. Empirical methods such as adversarial training can defend against particular attacks but remain vulnerable to more powerful attacks. Alternatively, Lipschitz networks provide certified robustness to unseen perturbations but lack sufficient expressive power. To harness the advantages of both approaches, we design a novel two-step Optimal Transport induced Adversarial Defense (OTAD) model that can fit the training data accurately while preserving the local Lipschitz continuity. First, we train a DNN with a regularizer derived from optimal transport theory, yielding a discrete optimal transport map linking data to its features. By leveraging the map's inherent regularity, we interpolate the map by solving the convex integration problem (CIP) to guarantee the local Lipschitz property. OTAD is extensible to diverse architectures of ResNet and Transformer, making it suitable for complex data. For efficient computation, the CIP can be solved through training neural networks. OTAD opens a novel avenue for developing reliable and secure deep learning systems through the regularity of optimal transport maps. Empirical results demonstrate that OTAD can outperform other robust models on diverse datasets.

arXiv:2408.06710v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have become increasingly popular for unsupervised tasks such as dimensionality reduction and missing data recovery due to their flexibility and non-linear nature. An importance-weighted version of the Bayesian GPLVMs has been proposed to obtain a tighter variational bound. However, this version of the approach is primarily limited to analyzing simple data structures, as the generation of an effective proposal distribution can become quite challenging in high-dimensional spaces or with complex data sets. In this work, we propose an Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) approach to address these issues. By transforming the posterior into a sequence of intermediate distributions using annealing, we combine the strengths of Sequential Monte Carlo samplers and VI to explore a wider range of posterior distributions and gradually approach the target distribution. We further propose an efficient algorithm by reparameterizing all variables in the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Experimental results on both toy and image datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of tighter variational bounds, higher log-likelihoods, and more robust convergence.

arXiv:2409.09787v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Developing an efficient sampler capable of generating independent and identically distributed (IID) samples from a Boltzmann distribution is a crucial challenge in scientific research, e.g. molecular dynamics. In this work, we intend to learn neural samplers given energy functions instead of data sampled from the Boltzmann distribution. By learning the energies of the noised data, we propose a diffusion-based sampler, Noised Energy Matching, which theoretically has lower variance and more complexity compared to related works. Furthermore, a novel bootstrapping technique is applied to NEM to balance between bias and variance. We evaluate NEM and BNEM on a 2-dimensional 40 Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) and a 4-particle double-well potential (DW-4). The experimental results demonstrate that BNEM can achieve state-of-the-art performance while being more robust.

arXiv:2510.04602v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Wasserstein barycenters provide a principled approach for aggregating probability measures, while preserving the geometry of their ambient space. Existing discrete methods are not scalable as they assume access to the complete set of samples from the input measures. Meanwhile, neural network approaches do scale well, but rely on complex optimization problems and cannot easily incorporate label information. We address these limitations through gradient flows in the space of probability measures. Through time discretization, we achieve a scalable algorithm that i) relies on mini-batch optimal transport, ii) accepts modular regularization through task-aware functions, and iii) seamlessly integrates supervised information into the ground-cost. We empirically validate our approach on domain adaptation benchmarks that span computer vision, neuroscience, and chemical engineering. Our method establishes a new state-of-the-art barycenter solver, with labeled barycenters consistently outperforming unlabeled ones.

arXiv:2512.03112v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Shapley values, a gold standard for feature attribution in Explainable AI, face two key challenges. First, the canonical Shapley framework assumes that the worth function is additive, yet real-world payoff constructions--driven by non-Gaussian distributions, heavy tails, feature dependence, or domain-specific loss scales--often violate this assumption, leading to distorted attributions. Second, achieving sparse explanations in high-dimensional settings by computing dense Shapley values and then applying ad hoc thresholding is costly and risks inconsistency. We introduce Sparse Isotonic Shapley Regression (SISR), a unified nonlinear explanation framework. SISR simultaneously learns a monotonic transformation to restore additivity--obviating the need for a closed-form specification--and enforces an L0 sparsity constraint on the Shapley vector, enhancing computational efficiency in large feature spaces. Its optimization algorithm leverages Pool-Adjacent-Violators for efficient isotonic regression and normalized hard-thresholding for support selection, ensuring ease in implementation and global convergence guarantees. Analysis shows that SISR recovers the true transformation in a wide range of scenarios and achieves strong support recovery even in high noise. Moreover, we are the first to demonstrate that irrelevant features and inter-feature dependencies can induce a true payoff transformation that deviates substantially from linearity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SISR stabilizes attributions across payoff schemes and correctly filters irrelevant features; in contrast, standard Shapley values suffer severe rank and sign distortions. By unifying nonlinear transformation estimation with sparsity pursuit, SISR advances the frontier of nonlinear explainability, providing a theoretically grounded and practical attribution framework.