arXiv:2604.03272v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a unified model in which AI adoption in financial markets generates systemic risk through three mutually reinforcing channels: performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency. Within an extended rational expectations framework with endogenous adoption, we derive an equilibrium systemic risk coupling $r(\phi) = \phi\rho\beta/\lambda'(\phi)$, where $\phi$ is the AI adoption share, $\rho$ the algorithmic signal correlation, $\beta$ the performative feedback intensity, and $\lambda'(\phi)$ the endogenous effective price impact. Because $\lambda'(\phi)$ is decreasing in $\phi$, the coupling is convex in adoption, implying that the systemic risk multiplier $M = (1 - r)^{-1}$ grows superlinearly as AI penetration increases. The model is developed in three layers. First, endogenous fragility: market depth is decreasing and convex in AI adoption. Second, embedding the convex coupling within a supermodular adoption game produces a saddle-node bifurcation into an algorithmic monoculture. Third, cognitive dependency as an endogenous state variable yields an impossibility theorem (hysteresis requires dynamics beyond static frameworks) and a channel necessity theorem (each channel is individually necessary). Empirical validation uses the complete universe of SEC Form 13F filings (99.5 million holdings, 10,957 institutional managers, 2013--2024) with a Bartik shift-share instrument (first-stage $F = 22.7$). The model implies tail-loss amplification of 18--54%, economically significant relative to Basel III countercyclical buffers.

arXiv:2604.03897v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a telecom-native auction mechanism for allocating bandwidth and time slots across heterogeneous-delay networks, ranging from low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellations to delay-tolerant deep-space relays. The Lorentz-Invariant Auction (LIA) treats bids as spacetime events and reweights reported values based on the \emph{horizon slack}, a causal quantity derived from the earliest-arrival times relative to a public clearing horizon. Unlike other delay-equalization rules, LIA combines a causal-ordering formulation, a uniquely exponential slack correction implied by a semigroup-style invariance axiom, and a critical-value implementation that ensures truthful reported values once slacks are fixed by trusted infrastructure. We analyze the incentive result in the exogenous-slack regime and separately examine bounded slack-estimation error and endogenous-delay limitations. Under fixed feasible slacks, LIA is individually rational and achieves welfare at least \(e^{-\lambda\Delta}\) relative to the optimal feasible allocation, where \(\Delta\) is the slack spread. We evaluate LIA on STARLINK-200, INTERNET-100, and DSN-30 across 52,500 baseline instances with market sizes \(n\in\{10,20,30,40,50\}\) and conduct additional robustness sweeps. On Starlink and Internet, LIA maintains near-efficiency while eliminating measured timing rents. However, on DSN, welfare is lower in thin markets but improves with depth. We also distinguish winner-determination time from the background cost of maintaining slack estimates and study robustness beyond independent and identically distributed (iid) noise through error-spread bounds and structured (distance-biased and subnetwork-correlated) noise models. These results suggest that causal-consistent mechanism design offers a practical non-buffering alternative to synchronized delay equalization in heterogeneous telecom infrastructures.

arXiv:2302.00797v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Opponent modeling methods typically involve two crucial steps: building a belief distribution over opponents' strategies, and exploiting this opponent model by playing a best response. However, existing approaches typically require domain-specific heurstics to come up with such a model, and algorithms for approximating best responses are hard to scale in large, imperfect information domains. In this work, we introduce a scalable and generic multiagent training regime for opponent modeling using deep game-theoretic reinforcement learning. We first propose Generative Best Respoonse (GenBR), a best response algorithm based on Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with a learned deep generative model that samples world states during planning. This new method scales to large imperfect information domains and can be plug and play in a variety of multiagent algorithms. We use this new method under the framework of Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO), to automate the generation of an \emph{offline opponent model} via iterative game-theoretic reasoning and population-based training. We propose using solution concepts based on bargaining theory to build up an opponent mixture, which we find identifying profiles that are near the Pareto frontier. Then GenBR keeps updating an \emph{online opponent model} and reacts against it during gameplay. We conduct behavioral studies where human participants negotiate with our agents in Deal-or-No-Deal, a class of bilateral bargaining games. Search with generative modeling finds stronger policies during both training time and test time, enables online Bayesian co-player prediction, and can produce agents that achieve comparable social welfare and Nash bargaining score negotiating with humans as humans trading among themselves.

arXiv:2603.06977v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is increasingly used to design learning-enabled agents that interact in shared environments. However, training MARL algorithms in general-sum games remains challenging: learning dynamics can become unstable, and convergence guarantees typically hold only in restricted settings such as two-player zero-sum or fully cooperative games. Moreover, when agents have heterogeneous and potentially conflicting preferences, it is unclear what system-level objective should guide learning. In this paper, we propose a new MARL pipeline called Near-Potential Policy Optimization (NePPO) for computing approximate Nash equilibria in mixed cooperative--competitive environments. The core idea is to learn a player-independent potential function such that the Nash equilibrium of a cooperative game with this potential as the common utility approximates a Nash equilibrium of the original game. To this end, we introduce a novel MARL objective such that minimizing this objective yields the best possible potential function candidate and consequently an approximate Nash equilibrium of the original game. We develop an algorithmic pipeline that minimizes this objective using zeroth-order gradient descent and returns an approximate Nash equilibrium policy. We empirically show the superior performance of this approach compared to popular baselines such as IPPO and MAPPO.