arXiv:2609.12528v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The deployment of a geoengineering program to cool Earth's climate may be imminent. It is crucial that tools be developed to ensure that such a program would achieve its objectives while minimizing disruption. Here we exploit recently developed differentiable atmospheric models to demonstrate a novel geoengineering control strategy. In the differentiable primitive-equation atmospheric model JAX-GCM we impose a uniform $+4$\,K ocean warming and ask what pattern of sea-surface temperature cooling -- in five ocean-masked zonal bands of prescribed SST forcings whose amplitudes are free -- returns land near-surface air temperature closest to the model's own unwarmed climatology. This idealized set-up represents a cooling pattern that could be delivered physically either by marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection. Gradients through chaotic dynamics decorrelate from the true sensitivity beyond the Lyapunov horizon, so we optimize greedily over segments of 8 to 14 days, following receding-horizon control. The learned strategy removes $92.3 \pm 0.4\%$ of the realized land warming across a ten-member ensemble of two-year rollouts, and a three-year run sustains it. If we use the spatial pattern of land temperature as the optimization objective, the distributions of precipitation, evaporation, and specific humidity over land are restored as well, even though they are not included in the objective function. The learned strategy from JAX-GCM replayed in the AI emulators LUCIE and NeuralGCM without re-optimization is successful, suggesting robustness. These promising results demonstrate a strategy for designing optimal climate interventions that can be applied broadly for geoengineering scenarios under consideration.

arXiv:2609.12815v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present BEAST, the first-ever Bayesian Swin Transformer for atmospheric forecasting on 0.25$^\circ$ global resolution able to accurately quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To overcome the associated computational bottlenecks, we devise an orthogonal 4D-parallelization scheme that introduces a unique domain-tensor-parallelism strategy and a novel uncertainty parallel method, enabling us to fully leverage GPU capacity and efficiently scale model training. For a 2.4-billion-parameter model, we achieve a peak performance of 3.96 EFLOP/s on 20,480 NVIDIA GH200 GPUs on the JUPITER supercomputer. We train BEAST as a 700-million-parameter model with 96 random weight samples on 384 nodes on 40 years of data for nearly one million gradient updates. This model achieves predictive skill scores competitive with state-of-the-art probabilistic atmospheric AI models and numerical models, and can predict extreme events with exceptional skill, while generating large ensembles 3 to 4 times faster than the current-best AI model. Our contribution unlocks the potential of high-fidelity uncertainty quantification in atmospheric AI models, heralding a new era for AI-based models in climate and Earth system sciences.

arXiv:2510.20486v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Imbalanced labels can cause frequent samples to dominate AI-based quantitative remote sensing, degrading rare-event retrieval. In rain-rate retrieval based on satellite infrared brightness temperatures, this imbalance leads to systematic underestimation of rare high-intensity rainfall. In this study, Hurdle-Retrieval Model Imbalanced Learning (RMIL) is proposed. Following a divide-and-conquer strategy, Hurdle-RMIL separates zero inflation from the long-tailed distribution of positive rain. A hurdle model handles zero inflation, whereas RMIL exploits invariance under fixed observation conditions of the rainfall-to-satellite forward process to derive a Bayes-based transformation linking conditional distributions under naturally long-tailed and hypothetical balanced rainfall. This transformation enables the balanced-distribution model to be learned from natural samples without constructing a balanced dataset. Comparisons with conventional learning, classification-regression modeling, cost-sensitive learning, and generative learning using test data from multiple regions in China show that Hurdle-RMIL mitigates systematic underestimation and improves detection of rare high-intensity and extreme rainfall without markedly degrading lower-threshold accuracy. At 0.1-10 mm per hour, its root mean square error remains close to those of the best baselines, and it yields the highest equitable threat score (ETS) at most evaluated thresholds, with its advantage becoming more pronounced at high thresholds. At 30 mm per hour, its ETS is 0.051 versus 0.015 for the best baseline, and its mean error is -25.41 mm per hour versus -28.98 mm per hour. Case studies further show improved representations of rainfall intensity and spatial extent, demonstrating that Hurdle-RMIL effectively addresses rainfall-distribution imbalance and improves the retrieval of rare high-intensity rainfall.