arXiv:2510.20486v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Imbalanced labels can cause frequent samples to dominate AI-based quantitative remote sensing, degrading rare-event retrieval. In rain-rate retrieval based on satellite infrared brightness temperatures, this imbalance leads to systematic underestimation of rare high-intensity rainfall. In this study, Hurdle-Retrieval Model Imbalanced Learning (RMIL) is proposed. Following a divide-and-conquer strategy, Hurdle-RMIL separates zero inflation from the long-tailed distribution of positive rain. A hurdle model handles zero inflation, whereas RMIL exploits invariance under fixed observation conditions of the rainfall-to-satellite forward process to derive a Bayes-based transformation linking conditional distributions under naturally long-tailed and hypothetical balanced rainfall. This transformation enables the balanced-distribution model to be learned from natural samples without constructing a balanced dataset. Comparisons with conventional learning, classification-regression modeling, cost-sensitive learning, and generative learning using test data from multiple regions in China show that Hurdle-RMIL mitigates systematic underestimation and improves detection of rare high-intensity and extreme rainfall without markedly degrading lower-threshold accuracy. At 0.1-10 mm per hour, its root mean square error remains close to those of the best baselines, and it yields the highest equitable threat score (ETS) at most evaluated thresholds, with its advantage becoming more pronounced at high thresholds. At 30 mm per hour, its ETS is 0.051 versus 0.015 for the best baseline, and its mean error is -25.41 mm per hour versus -28.98 mm per hour. Case studies further show improved representations of rainfall intensity and spatial extent, demonstrating that Hurdle-RMIL effectively addresses rainfall-distribution imbalance and improves the retrieval of rare high-intensity rainfall.

arXiv:2603.22362v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Full-waveform inversion (FWI) estimates physical parameters in the wave equation from limited measurements and has been widely applied in geophysical exploration, medical imaging, and non-destructive testing. Conventional FWI methods are limited by their notorious sensitivity to the accuracy of the initial models. Recent progress in continuous representation FWI (CR-FWI) demonstrates that representing parameter models with a coordinate-based neural network, such as implicit neural representation (INR), can mitigate the dependence on initial models. However, its underlying mechanism remains unclear, and INR-based FWI shows slower high-frequency convergence. In this work, we investigate the general CR-FWI framework and develop a unified theoretical understanding by extending the neural tangent kernel (NTK) for FWI to establish a wave-based NTK framework. Unlike standard NTK, our analysis reveals that wave-based NTK is not constant, both at initialization and during training, due to the inherent nonlinearity of FWI. We further show that the eigenvalue decay behavior of the wave-based NTK can explain why CR-FWI alleviates the dependency on initial models and shows slower high-frequency convergence. Building on these insights, we propose several CR-FWI methods with tailored eigenvalue decay properties for FWI, including a novel hybrid representation combining INR and multi-resolution grid (termed IG-FWI) that achieves a more balanced trade-off between robustness and high-frequency convergence rate. Applications in geophysical exploration on Marmousi, 2D SEG/EAGE Salt and Overthrust, 2004 BP model, and the more realistic 2014 Chevron models show the superior performance of our proposed methods compared to conventional FWI and existing INR-based FWI methods.

arXiv:2603.23322v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Android's Earthquake Alert (AEA) system provided timely early warnings to millions during the Mw 6.2 Marmara Ereglisi, T\"urkiye earthquake on April 23, 2025. This event, the largest in the region in 25 years, served as a critical real-world test for smartphone-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems. The AEA system successfully delivered alerts to users with high precision, offering over a minute of warning before the strongest shaking reached urban areas. This study leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze more than 500 public social media posts from the X platform, extracting 42 distinct attributes related to user experience and behavior. Statistical analyses revealed significant relationships, notably a strong correlation between user trust and alert timeliness. Our results indicate a distinction between engineering and the user-centric definition of system accuracy. We found that timeliness is accuracy in the user's mind. Overall, this study provides actionable insights for optimizing alert design, public education campaigns, and future behavioral research to improve the effectiveness of such systems in seismically active regions.

arXiv:2603.21152v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Inferring the physical mechanisms that govern earthquake sequences from indirect geophysical observations remains difficult, particularly across tectonically distinct environments where similar seismic patterns can reflect different underlying processes. Current interpretations rely heavily on the expert synthesis of catalogs, spatiotemporal statistics, and candidate physical models, limiting reproducibility and the systematic transfer of insight across settings. Here we present TRACE (Trans-perspective Reasoning and Automated Comprehensive Evaluator), a multi-agent system that combines large language model planning with formal seismological constraints to derive auditable, physically grounded mechanistic inference from raw observations. Applied to the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, TRACE autonomously identifies stress-perturbation-induced delayed triggering, resolving the cascading interaction between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 mainshocks; in the Santorini-Kolumbo case, the system identifies a structurally guided intrusion model, distinguishing fault-channeled episodic migration from the continuous propagation expected in homogeneous crustal failure. By providing a generalizable logical infrastructure for interpreting heterogeneous seismic phenomena, TRACE advances the field from expert-dependent analysis toward knowledge-guided autonomous discovery in Earth sciences.

arXiv:2406.14815v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Geological parameterization entails the representation of a geomodel using a small set of latent variables and a mapping from these variables to grid-block properties such as porosity and permeability. Parameterization is useful for data assimilation (history matching), as it maintains geological realism while reducing the number of variables to be determined. Diffusion models are a new class of generative deep-learning procedures that have been shown to outperform previous methods, such as generative adversarial networks, for image generation tasks. Diffusion models are trained to "denoise", which enables them to generate new geological realizations from input fields characterized by random noise. Latent diffusion models, which are the specific variant considered in this study, provide dimension reduction through use of a low-dimensional latent variable. The model developed in this work includes a variational autoencoder for dimension reduction and a U-net for the denoising process. Our application involves conditional 2D three-facies (channel-levee-mud) systems. The latent diffusion model is shown to provide realizations that are visually consistent with samples from geomodeling software. Quantitative metrics involving spatial and flow-response statistics are evaluated, and general agreement between the diffusion-generated models and reference realizations is observed. Stability tests are performed to assess the smoothness of the parameterization method. The latent diffusion model is then used for ensemble-based data assimilation. Two synthetic "true" models are considered. Significant uncertainty reduction, posterior P$_{10}$-P$_{90}$ forecasts that generally bracket observed data, and consistent posterior geomodels, are achieved in both cases. PLEASE CITE AS: 10.1016/j.cageo.2024.105755 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0098300424002383 NOT WITH THE ARXIV VERSION

arXiv:2603.06782v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data scarcity is a primary obstacle in developing robust Machine Learning (ML) models for detecting rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Traditional data augmentation techniques (rotation, flipping, brightness adjustment) fail to preserve the physical consistency and high-intensity gradients characteristic of rare Category 4-equivalent events, which constitute only 0.14\% of our dataset (202 of 140,514 samples). We propose a physics-informed diffusion model based on the Context-UNet architecture to generate synthetic, multi-spectral satellite imagery of extreme weather events. Our model is conditioned on critical atmospheric parameters such as average wind speed, type of Ocean and stage of development (early, mature, late etc) -- the known drivers of rapid intensification. Using a controlled pre-generated noise sampling strategy and mixed-precision training, we generated $16\times16$ wind-field samples that are cropped from multi-spectral satellite imagery which preserve realistic spatial autocorrelation and physical consistency. Results demonstrate that our model successfully learns discriminative features across ten distinct context classes, effectively mitigating the data bottleneck. Specifically, we address the extreme class imbalance in our dataset, where Class 4 (Ocean 2, early stage with average wind speed 50kn hurricane) contains only 202 samples compared to 79,768 samples in Class 0. This generative framework provides a scalable solution for augmenting training datasets for operational weather detection algorithms. The average Results yield an average Log-Spectral Distance (LSD) of 4.5dB, demonstrating a scalable framework for enhancing operational weather detection algorithms.

arXiv:2603.03344v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Earthquake detection and seismic phase picking are fundamental yet challenging tasks in seismology due to low signal-to-noise ratios, waveform variability, and overlapping events. Recent deep-learning models achieve strong results but rely on large datasets and heavy backpropagation training, raising concerns over efficiency, interpretability, and sustainability. We propose GreenPhase, a multi-resolution, feed-forward, and mathematically interpretable model based on the Green Learning framework. GreenPhase comprises three resolution levels, each integrating unsupervised representation learning, supervised feature learning, and decision learning. Its feed-forward design eliminates backpropagation, enabling independent module optimization with stable training and clear interpretability. Predictions are refined from coarse to fine resolutions while computation is restricted to candidate regions. On the Stanford Earthquake Dataset (STEAD), GreenPhase achieves excellent performance with F1 scores of 1.0 for detection, 0.98 for P-wave picking, and 0.96 for S-wave picking. This is accomplished while reducing the computational cost (FLOPs) for inference by approximately 83% compared to state-of-the-art models. These results demonstrate that the proposed model provides an efficient, interpretable, and sustainable alternative for large-scale seismic monitoring.

arXiv:2603.03346v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modeling the unsaturated behavior of porous materials with multimodal pore size distributions presents significant challenges, as standard hydraulic models often fail to capture their complex, multi-scale characteristics. A common workaround involves superposing unimodal retention functions, each tailored to a specific pore size range; however, this approach requires separate parameter identification for each mode, which limits interpretability and generalizability, especially in data-sparse scenarios. In this work, we introduce a fundamentally different approach: a physics-constrained machine learning framework designed for meta-modeling, enabling the automatic discovery of closed-form mathematical expressions for multimodal water retention curves directly from experimental data. Mathematical expressions are represented as binary trees and evolved via genetic programming, while physical constraints are embedded into the loss function to guide the symbolic regressor toward solutions that are physically consistent and mathematically robust. Our results demonstrate that the proposed framework can discover closed-form equations that effectively represent the water retention characteristics of porous materials with varying pore structures. To support third-party validation, application, and extension, we make the full implementation publicly available in an open-source repository.

arXiv:2601.02158v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper presents FormationEval, an open multiple-choice question benchmark for evaluating language models on petroleum geoscience and subsurface disciplines. The dataset contains 505 questions across seven domains including petrophysics, petroleum geology and reservoir engineering, derived from three authoritative sources using a reasoning model with detailed instructions and a concept-based approach that avoids verbatim copying of copyrighted text. Each question includes source metadata to support traceability and audit. The evaluation covers 72 models from major providers including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and open-weight alternatives. The top performers achieve over 97% accuracy, with Gemini 3 Pro Preview reaching 99.8%, while tier and domain gaps persist. Among open-weight models, GLM-4.7 leads at 98.6%, with several DeepSeek, Llama, Qwen and Mistral models also exceeding 93%. The performance gap between open-weight and closed models is narrower than expected, with several lower-cost open-weight models exceeding 90% accuracy. Petrophysics emerges as the most challenging domain across all models, while smaller models show wider performance variance. Residual length bias in the dataset (correct answers tend to be longer) is documented along with bias mitigation strategies applied during construction. The benchmark, evaluation code and results are publicly available.