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Leveraging LLMs and Social Media to Understand User Perception of Smartphone-Based Earthquake Early Warnings

arXiv:2603.23322v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Android's Earthquake Alert (AEA) system provided timely early warnings to millions during the Mw 6.2 Marmara Ereglisi, T\"urkiye earthquake on April 23, 2025. This event, the largest in the region in 25 years, served as a critical real-world test for smartphone-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems. The AEA system successfully delivered alerts to users with high precision, offering over a minute of warning before the strongest shaking reached urban areas. This study leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze more than 500 public social media posts from the X platform, extracting 42 distinct attributes related to user experience and behavior. Statistical analyses revealed significant relationships, notably a strong correlation between user trust and alert timeliness. Our results indicate a distinction between engineering and the user-centric definition of system accuracy. We found that timeliness is accuracy in the user's mind. Overall, this study provides actionable insights for optimizing alert design, public education campaigns, and future behavioral research to improve the effectiveness of such systems in seismically active regions.
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TRACE: A Multi-Agent System for Autonomous Physical Reasoning in Seismological

arXiv:2603.21152v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Inferring the physical mechanisms that govern earthquake sequences from indirect geophysical observations remains difficult, particularly across tectonically distinct environments where similar seismic patterns can reflect different underlying processes. Current interpretations rely heavily on the expert synthesis of catalogs, spatiotemporal statistics, and candidate physical models, limiting reproducibility and the systematic transfer of insight across settings. Here we present TRACE (Trans-perspective Reasoning and Automated Comprehensive Evaluator), a multi-agent system that combines large language model planning with formal seismological constraints to derive auditable, physically grounded mechanistic inference from raw observations. Applied to the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, TRACE autonomously identifies stress-perturbation-induced delayed triggering, resolving the cascading interaction between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 mainshocks; in the Santorini-Kolumbo case, the system identifies a structurally guided intrusion model, distinguishing fault-channeled episodic migration from the continuous propagation expected in homogeneous crustal failure. By providing a generalizable logical infrastructure for interpreting heterogeneous seismic phenomena, TRACE advances the field from expert-dependent analysis toward knowledge-guided autonomous discovery in Earth sciences.
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