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Physics of Agents: Statistical Mechanics Predicts Collective Behavior of AI Agents

arXiv:2608.16578v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: AI agents increasingly operate as part of interacting systems rather than in isolation. As agents exchange information and jointly make decisions, their interactions can improve collective reasoning but may also produce herding, polarization, or amplify shared biases. Understanding and predicting these collective dynamics is therefore important for designing effective and aligned multi-agent systems. Here, we study over 10,000 communities of language-model agents that repeatedly exchange messages and revise their opinions across objective mathematics questions and subjective political statements. Despite substantial diversity in possible behavior, the individual and group dynamics can be represented by three characteristic regimes: indifference, polarization, and consensus. AI agents start indifferent and build conviction as they interact. On objective questions, communication improves collective accuracy, while on subjective questions it often drifts group opinions toward the right in the political spectrum. We explain these observations with a statistical-mechanics formalism in which agents stochastically favor lower social pressure. Given only initial opinions, our model predicts individual trajectories, outperforms all standard baselines, generalizes to unseen community graphs, and reproduces the observed group archetype distributions. Our fitted model parameters reveal the mechanics underlying our key observations: i) communities operate below the critical social temperature, which explains conviction buildup; ii) attractive ties outweigh repulsive ones, which favors consensus; and iii) agents holding the correct answer exert the strongest pull, which drives truth-seeking. Overall, our results demonstrate that collective behavior of AI agents, like that of other complex systems, follows compact and predictive dynamical laws.
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From Accuracy to Auditability: A Survey of Determinism in Financial AI Systems

arXiv:2605.23955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying machine learning in regulated financial environments -- credit risk, fraud detection, and anti-money laundering -- exposes critical vulnerabilities in algorithmic reproducibility. While early financial ML addressed statistical challenges such as backtest overfitting, deep neural networks and Generative AI have introduced mechanical nondeterminism rooted in hardware and architecture. This survey provides a systems perspective on reproducibility failures across three modalities now dominant in financial AI: tabular models (post-hoc explanation variance), graph networks (stochastic sampling and temporal asynchrony), and LLM-based agentic workflows (batch-dependent divergence and trajectory drift). We supplement the literature analysis with first-party experiments on public financial datasets -- quantifying explanation rank instability in credit scoring, prediction flip rates in GNN-based fraud detection, and tensor-parallel-induced output divergence in LLM entity extraction. We propose a layered evaluation framework linking modality-specific metrics (RBO, D_cos, TDI, PSD) to audit readiness, and empirically validate the complementarity of logit-level and semantic-level determinism measures.
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Saturating Scaling Laws for Equational Discovery: A Phenomenology of Growth Dynamics in Three Toy Substrates with Two Real-World Replications

arXiv:2605.23983v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate growth dynamics in deterministic equational discovery substrates. Across three toy domains (arithmetic, boolean, higher-order list; n=592 trajectories), short-range substrate sizes fit a power-law N(t) proportional to t^b. Within each substrate b is architecture-sensitive (cross-validated R^2 approximately 0.82); the regression does not transfer across substrates (arith+bool to list yields R^2 approximately -0.84). A heuristic mean-field closure model predicts a saturating power-law dN/dt = K N^k exp(-mu N) of which the pure power-law is the short-range approximation. Three robustness checks: bootstrap intervals on (k, mu) are tight in 4/5 toy trajectories and degenerate in 1/5; out-of-sample forecasting on toy data (fit first 100 epochs, predict next 400) is won by pure power-law 5/5, indicating the toy trajectories do not reach saturation; on two real-world growth proxies the result splits. New Mathlib/*.lean file additions per month (mathlib4, 60 months, 9701 files) support the saturating form on OOS forecasting by approximately 7x over pure power-law; Coq mathcomp monthly commits (129 months, 3083 commits) favour pure power-law on both tests with mu collapsing to zero. The dynamics are substrate-conditional at two levels: within-substrate architecture-to-b regressions do not transfer, and the preferred functional family for N(t) itself (pure vs. saturating power-law) differs by substrate. We propose "saturating power-law growth with substrate-conditional (k, mu), observable when the substrate has reached its saturation regime" as a working framing.
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AI Content Moderation in Therapy Conversations

arXiv:2605.25454v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being used for emotional support. They are also being developed for formal therapy purposes. However, LLMs like ChaptGPT or Llama are often developed with content moderation guardrails that prevent them from discussing sensitive subjects with users for both liability and safety purposes, and this inability to broach these subjects may affect their capacity as therapists. In this study, we perform an algorithm audit on three state-of-the-art moderation systems (OpenAI's moderation endpoint, Meta's Llama Guard, and Google's Shield Gemma) to investigate the extent to which these systems flag the content of real-life therapy sessions as undesirable. Our results raise implications for the limitations that users and organizations may encounter when designing LLMs to play the part of a therapist.
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HiGraph: A Large-Scale Hierarchical Graph Dataset for Malware Analysis

arXiv:2509.02113v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The advancement of graph-based malware analysis is critically limited by the absence of large-scale datasets that capture the inherent hierarchical structure of software. Existing methods often oversimplify programs into single level graphs, failing to model the crucial semantic relationship between high-level functional interactions and low-level instruction logic. To bridge this gap, we introduce \dataset, the largest public hierarchical graph dataset for malware analysis, comprising over \textbf{200M} Control Flow Graphs (CFGs) nested within \textbf{595K} Function Call Graphs (FCGs). This two-level representation preserves structural semantics essential for building robust detectors resilient to code obfuscation and malware evolution. We demonstrate HiGraph's utility through a large-scale analysis that reveals distinct structural properties of benign and malicious software, establishing it as a foundational benchmark for the community. The dataset and tools are publicly available at https://higraph.org.
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Classifying Problem and Solution Framing in Congressional Social Media

arXiv:2604.03247v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Policy setting in the USA according to the ``Garbage Can'' model differentiates between ``problem'' and ``solution'' focused processes. In this paper, we study a large dataset of US Senator postings on Twitter (1.68m tweets in total). Our objective is to develop an automated method to label Senatorial posts as either in the problem or solution streams. Two academic policy experts labeled a subset of 3967 tweets as either problem, solution, or other (anything not problem or solution). We split off a subset of 500 tweets into a test set, with the remaining 3467 used for training. During development, this training set was further split by 60/20/20 proportions for fitting, validation, and development test sets. We investigated supervised learning methods for building problem/solution classifiers directly on the training set, evaluating their performance in terms of F1 score on the validation set, allowing us to rapidly iterate through models and hyperparameters, achieving an average weighted F1 score of above 0.8 on cross validation across the three categories using a BERTweet Base model.
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How AI Aggregation Affects Knowledge

arXiv:2604.04906v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) changes social learning when aggregated outputs become training data for future predictions. To study this, we extend the DeGroot model by introducing an AI aggregator that trains on population beliefs and feeds synthesized signals back to agents. We define the learning gap as the deviation of long-run beliefs from the efficient benchmark, allowing us to capture how AI aggregation affects learning. Our main result identifies a threshold in the speed of updating: when the aggregator updates too quickly, there is no positive-measure set of training weights that robustly improves learning across a broad class of environments, whereas such weights exist when updating is sufficiently slow. We then compare global and local architectures. Local aggregators trained on proximate or topic-specific data robustly improve learning in all environments. Consequently, replacing specialized local aggregators with a single global aggregator worsens learning in at least one dimension of the state.
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When AI Agents Collude Online: Financial Fraud Risks by Collaborative LLM Agents on Social Platforms

arXiv:2511.06448v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this work, we study the risks of collective financial fraud in large-scale multi-agent systems powered by large language model (LLM) agents. We investigate whether agents can collaborate in fraudulent behaviors, how such collaboration amplifies risks, and what factors influence fraud success. To support this research, we present MultiAgentFraudBench, a large-scale benchmark for simulating financial fraud scenarios based on realistic online interactions. The benchmark covers 28 typical online fraud scenarios, spanning the full fraud lifecycle across both public and private domains. We further analyze key factors affecting fraud success, including interaction depth, activity level, and fine-grained collaboration failure modes. Finally, we propose a series of mitigation strategies, including adding content-level warnings to fraudulent posts and dialogues, using LLMs as monitors to block potentially malicious agents, and fostering group resilience through information sharing at the societal level. Notably, we observe that malicious agents can adapt to environmental interventions. Our findings highlight the real-world risks of multi-agent financial fraud and suggest practical measures for mitigating them. Code is available at https://github.com/zheng977/MutiAgent4Fraud.
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MoltNet: Understanding Social Behavior of AI Agents in the Agent-Native MoltBook

arXiv:2602.13458v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large-scale communities of AI agents are becoming increasingly prevalent, creating new environments for agent-agent social interaction. Prior work has examined multi-agent behavior primarily in controlled or small-scale settings, limiting our understanding of emergent social dynamics at scale. The recent emergence of MoltBook, a social networking platform designed explicitly for AI agents, presents a unique opportunity to study whether and how these interactions reproduce core human social mechanisms. We present MoltNet, a dataset tracking the full one-month activity trajectories of 148K AI agents on MoltBook (Jan.-Feb., 2026), and analyze their social interaction along four theory-grounded dimensions: \textit{intent and motivation}, \textit{norms and templates}, \textit{incentives and drift}, \textit{emotion and contagion}. Our analysis reveals that agents respond strongly to social rewards, converge on community-specific norms, and actively enforce them across community boundaries -- resembling human incentive sensitivity and normative conformity. However, they exhibit weak alignment with declared personas and display limited emotional reciprocity and dialogic engagement, diverging systematically from human online communities. These findings establish a first empirical portrait of agent social behavior at scale, with direct implications for the design and governance of AI-populated communities.
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Mind Your HEARTBEAT! Claw Background Execution Inherently Enables Silent Memory Pollution

arXiv:2603.23064v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We identify a critical security vulnerability in mainstream Claw personal AI agents: untrusted content encountered during heartbeat-driven background execution can silently pollute agent memory and subsequently influence user-facing behavior without the user's awareness. This vulnerability arises from an architectural design shared across the Claw ecosystem: heartbeat background execution runs in the same session as user-facing conversation, so content ingested from any external source monitored in the background (including email, message channels, news feeds, code repositories, and social platforms) can enter the same memory context used for foreground interaction, often with limited user visibility and without clear source provenance. We formalize this process as an Exposure (E) $\rightarrow$ Memory (M) $\rightarrow$ Behavior (B) pathway: misinformation encountered during heartbeat execution enters the agent's short-term session context, potentially gets written into long-term memory, and later shapes downstream user-facing behavior. We instantiate this pathway in an agent-native social setting using MissClaw, a controlled research replica of Moltbook. We find that (1) social credibility cues, especially perceived consensus, are the dominant driver of short-term behavioral influence, with misleading rates up to 61%; (2) routine memory-saving behavior can promote short-term pollution into durable long-term memory at rates up to 91%, with cross-session behavioral influence reaching 76%; (3) under naturalistic browsing with content dilution and context pruning, pollution still crosses session boundaries. Overall, prompt injection is not required: ordinary social misinformation is sufficient to silently shape agent memory and behavior under heartbeat-driven background execution.
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AgentSocialBench: Evaluating Privacy Risks in Human-Centered Agentic Social Networks

arXiv:2604.01487v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: With the rise of personalized, persistent LLM agent frameworks such as OpenClaw, human-centered agentic social networks in which teams of collaborative AI agents serve individual users in a social network across multiple domains are becoming a reality. This setting creates novel privacy challenges: agents must coordinate across domain boundaries, mediate between humans, and interact with other users' agents, all while protecting sensitive personal information. While prior work has evaluated multi-agent coordination and privacy preservation, the dynamics and privacy risks of human-centered agentic social networks remain unexplored. To this end, we introduce AgentSocialBench, the first benchmark to systematically evaluate privacy risk in this setting, comprising scenarios across seven categories spanning dyadic and multi-party interactions, grounded in realistic user profiles with hierarchical sensitivity labels and directed social graphs. Our experiments reveal that privacy in agentic social networks is fundamentally harder than in single-agent settings: (1) cross-domain and cross-user coordination creates persistent leakage pressure even when agents are explicitly instructed to protect information, (2) privacy instructions that teach agents how to abstract sensitive information paradoxically cause them to discuss it more (we call it abstraction paradox). These findings underscore that current LLM agents lack robust mechanisms for privacy preservation in human-centered agentic social networks, and that new approaches beyond prompt engineering are needed to make agent-mediated social coordination safe for real-world deployment.
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Can LLMs Predict Academic Collaboration? Topology Heuristics vs. LLM-Based Link Prediction on Real Co-authorship Networks

arXiv:2604.01379v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Can large language models (LLMs) predict which researchers will collaborate? We study this question through link prediction on real-world co-authorship networks from OpenAlex (9.96M authors, 108.7M edges), evaluating whether LLMs can predict future scientific collaborations using only author profiles, without access to graph structure. Using Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct across three historical eras of AI research, we find that LLMs and topology heuristics capture distinct signals and are strongest in complementary settings. On new-edge prediction under natural class imbalance, the LLM achieves AUROC 0.714--0.789, outperforming Common Neighbors, Jaccard, and Preferential Attachment, with recall up to 92.9\%; under balanced evaluation, the LLM outperforms \emph{all} topology heuristics in every era (AUROC 0.601--0.658 vs.\ best-heuristic 0.525--0.538); on continued edges, the LLM (0.687) is competitive with Adamic-Adar (0.684). Critically, 78.6--82.7\% of new collaborations occur between authors with no common neighbor -- a blind spot where all topology heuristics score zero but the LLM still achieves AUROC 0.652 by reasoning from author metadata alone. A temporal metadata ablation reveals that research concepts are the dominant signal (removing concepts drops AUROC by 0.047--0.084). Providing pre-computed graph features to the LLM \emph{degrades} performance due to anchoring effects, confirming that LLMs and topology methods should operate as separate, complementary channels. A socio-cultural ablation finds that name-inferred ethnicity and institutional country do not predict collaboration beyond topology, reflecting the demographic homogeneity of AI research. A node2vec baseline achieves AUROC comparable to Adamic-Adar, establishing that LLMs access a fundamentally different information channel -- author metadata -- rather than encoding the same structural signal differently.
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A Pressure-Based Diffusion Model for Influence Maximization on Social Networks

arXiv:2509.12822v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In many real-world scenarios, an individual's local social network carries significant influence over the opinions they form and subsequently propagate. In this paper, we propose a novel diffusion model -- the Pressure Threshold model (PT) -- for dynamically simulating the spread of influence through a social network. This model extends the popular Linear Threshold (LT) model by adjusting a node's outgoing influence in proportion to the influence it receives from its activated neighbors. We examine the Influence Maximization (IM) problem under this framework, which involves selecting seed nodes that yield maximal graph coverage after a diffusion process, and describe how the problem manifests under the PT model. Experiments on real-world networks, supported by enhancements to the open-source network-diffusion library CyNetDiff, reveal that greedy IM under PT can yield seed sets distinct from those under LT. Furthermore, the analyses show that densely connected networks amplify pressure effects far more strongly than sparse networks.
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Sima AIunty: Caste Audit in LLM-Driven Matchmaking

arXiv:2603.29288v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Social and personal decisions in relational domains such as matchmaking are deeply entwined with cultural norms and historical hierarchies, and can potentially be shaped by algorithmic and AI-mediated assessments of compatibility, acceptance, and stability. In South Asian contexts, caste remains a central aspect of marital decision-making, yet little is known about how contemporary large language models (LLMs) reproduce or disrupt caste-based stratification in such settings. In this work, we conduct a controlled audit of caste bias in LLM-mediated matchmaking evaluations using real-world matrimonial profiles. We vary caste identity across Brahmin, Kshatriya, Vaishya, Shudra, and Dalit, and income across five buckets, and evaluate five LLM families (GPT, Gemini, Llama, Qwen, and BharatGPT). Models are prompted to assess profiles along dimensions of social acceptance, marital stability, and cultural compatibility. Our analysis reveals consistent hierarchical patterns across models: same-caste matches are rated most favorably, with average ratings up to 25% higher (on a 10-point scale) than inter-caste matches, which are further ordered according to traditional caste hierarchy. These findings highlight how existing caste hierarchies are reproduced in LLM decision-making and underscore the need for culturally grounded evaluation and intervention strategies in AI systems deployed in socially sensitive domains, where such systems risk reinforcing historical forms of exclusion.
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BotVerse: Real-Time Event-Driven Simulation of Social Agents

arXiv:2603.29741v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: BotVerse is a scalable, event-driven framework for high-fidelity social simulation using LLM-based agents. It addresses the ethical risks of studying autonomous agents on live networks by isolating interactions within a controlled environment while grounding them in real-time content streams from the Bluesky ecosystem. The system features an asynchronous orchestration API and a simulation engine that emulates human-like temporal patterns and cognitive memory. Through the Synthetic Social Observatory, researchers can deploy customizable personas and observe multimodal interactions at scale. We demonstrate BotVersevia a coordinated disinformation scenario, providing a safe, experimental framework for red-teaming and computational social scientists. A video demonstration of the framework is available at https://youtu.be/eZSzO5Jarqk.
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Online design of dynamic networks

arXiv:2410.08875v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Designing a network (e.g., a telecommunication or transport network) is mainly done offline, in a planning phase, prior to the operation of the network. On the other hand, a massive effort has been devoted to characterizing dynamic networks, i.e., those that evolve over time. The novelty of this paper is that we introduce a method for the online design of dynamic networks. The need to do so emerges when a network needs to operate in a dynamic and stochastic environment. In this case, one may wish to build a network over time, on the fly, in order to react to the changes of the environment and to keep certain performance targets. We tackle this online design problem with a rolling horizon optimization based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. The potential of online network design is showcased for the design of a futuristic dynamic public transport network, where bus lines are constructed on the fly to better adapt to a stochastic user demand. In such a scenario, we compare our results with state-of-the-art dynamic vehicle routing problem (VRP) resolution methods, simulating requests from a New York City taxi dataset. Differently from classic VRP methods, that extend vehicle trajectories in isolation, our method enables us to build a structured network of line buses, where complex user journeys are possible, thus increasing system performance.
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Can Graph Foundation Models Generalize Over Architecture?

arXiv:2603.22984v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Graph foundation models (GFMs) have recently attracted interest due to the promise of graph neural network (GNN) architectures that generalize zero-shot across graphs of arbitrary scales, feature dimensions, and domains. While existing work has demonstrated this ability empirically across diverse real-world benchmarks, these tasks share a crucial hidden limitation: they admit a narrow set of effective GNN architectures. In particular, current domain-agnostic GFMs rely on fixed architectural backbones, implicitly assuming that a single message-passing regime suffices across tasks. In this paper, we argue that architecture adaptivity is a necessary requirement for true GFMs. We show that existing approaches are non-robust to task-dependent architectural attributes and, as a case study, use range as a minimal and measurable axis along which this limitation becomes explicit. With theoretical analysis and controlled synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that fixed-backbone GFMs provably under-reach on tasks whose architectural requirements differ from those seen at training time. To address this issue, we introduce a framework that adapts effective GNN architecture at inference time by discovering and mixing task-specific linear graph operators, enabling zero-shot generalization across tasks with heterogeneous architectural requirements, without retraining. We validate our approach on arbitrary-range synthetic tasks and a suite of real-world benchmarks, demonstrating improved performance and robustness over existing domain-agnostic GFMs.
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Mind Your HEARTBEAT! Claw Background Execution Inherently Enables Silent Memory Pollution

arXiv:2603.23064v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We identify a critical security vulnerability in mainstream Claw personal AI agents: untrusted content encountered during heartbeat-driven background execution can silently pollute agent memory and subsequently influence user-facing behavior without the user's awareness. This vulnerability arises from an architectural design shared across the Claw ecosystem: heartbeat background execution runs in the same session as user-facing conversation, so content ingested from any external source monitored in the background (including email, message channels, news feeds, code repositories, and social platforms) can enter the same memory context used for foreground interaction, often with limited user visibility and without clear source provenance. We formalize this process as an Exposure (E) $\rightarrow$ Memory (M) $\rightarrow$ Behavior (B) pathway: misinformation encountered during heartbeat execution enters the agent's short-term session context, potentially gets written into long-term memory, and later shapes downstream user-facing behavior. We instantiate this pathway in an agent-native social setting using MissClaw, a controlled research replica of Moltbook. We find that (1) social credibility cues, especially perceived consensus, are the dominant driver of short-term behavioral influence, with misleading rates up to 61%; (2) routine memory-saving behavior can promote short-term pollution into durable long-term memory at rates up to 91%, with cross-session behavioral influence reaching 76%; (3) under naturalistic browsing with content dilution and context pruning, pollution still crosses session boundaries. Overall, prompt injection is not required: ordinary social misinformation is sufficient to silently shape agent memory and behavior under heartbeat-driven background execution.
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Emergence of Fragility in LLM-based Social Networks: the Case of Moltbook

arXiv:2603.23279v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The rapid diffusion of large language models and the growth in their capability has enabled the emergence of online environments populated by autonomous AI agents that interact through natural language. These platforms provide a novel empirical setting for studying collective dynamics among artificial agents. In this paper we analyze the interaction network of Moltbook, a social platform composed entirely of LLM based agents, using tools from network science. The dataset comprises 39,924 users, 235,572 posts, and 1,540,238 comments collected through web scraping. We construct a directed weighted network in which nodes represent agents and edges represent commenting interactions. Our analysis reveals strongly heterogeneous connectivity patterns characterized by heavy tailed degree and activity distributions. At the mesoscale, the network exhibits a pronounced core periphery organization in which a very small structural core (0.9% of nodes) concentrates a large fraction of connectivity. Robustness experiments show that the network is relatively resilient to random node removal but highly vulnerable to targeted attacks on highly connected nodes, particularly those with high out degree. These findings indicate that the interaction structure of AI agent social systems may develop strong centralization and structural fragility, providing new insights into the collective organization of LLM native social environments.
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Training-free Adjustable Polynomial Graph Filtering for Ultra-fast Multimodal Recommendation

arXiv:2503.04406v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multimodal recommender systems improve the performance of canonical recommender systems with no item features by utilizing diverse content types such as text, images, and videos, while alleviating inherent sparsity of user-item interactions and accelerating user engagement. However, current neural network-based models often incur significant computational overhead due to the complex training process required to learn and integrate information from multiple modalities. To address this challenge, we propose a training-free multimodal recommendation method grounded in graph filtering, designed for multimodal recommendation systems to achieve efficient and accurate recommendation. Specifically, the proposed method first constructs multiple similarity graphs for two distinct modalities as well as user-item interaction data. Then, it optimally fuses these multimodal signals using a polynomial graph filter that allows for precise control of the frequency response by adjusting frequency bounds. Furthermore, the filter coefficients are treated as hyperparameters, enabling flexible and data-driven adaptation. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method not only improves recommendation accuracy by up to 22.25% compared to the best competitor but also dramatically reduces computational costs by achieving the runtime of less than 10 seconds.
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