arXiv:2511.12869v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have benefited enormously from scaling, yet these gains are bounded by five fundamental limitations: (1) hallucination, (2) context compression, (3) reasoning degradation, (4) retrieval fragility, and (5) multimodal misalignment. While existing surveys describe these phenomena empirically, they lack a rigorous theoretical synthesis connecting them to the foundational limits of computation, information, and learning. This work closes that gap by presenting a unified, proof-informed framework that formalizes the innate theoretical ceilings of LLM scaling. First, computability and uncomputability imply an irreducible residue of error: for any computably enumerable model family, diagonalization guarantees inputs on which some model must fail, and undecidable queries (e.g., halting-style tasks) induce infinite failure sets for all computable predictors. Second, information-theoretic and statistical constraints bound attainable accuracy even on decidable tasks, finite description length enforces compression error, and long-tail factual knowledge requires prohibitive sample complexity. Third, geometric and computational effects compress long contexts far below their nominal size due to positional under-training, encoding attenuation, and softmax crowding. We further show how likelihood-based training favors pattern completion over inference, how retrieval under token limits suffers from semantic drift and coupling noise, and how multimodal scaling inherits shallow cross-modal alignment. Across sections, we pair theorems and empirical evidence to outline where scaling helps, where it saturates, and where it cannot progress, providing both theoretical foundations and practical mitigation paths like bounded-oracle retrieval, positional curricula, and sparse or hierarchical attention.

arXiv:2601.16414v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Difficulty replicating baselines, high computational costs, and required domain expertise create persistent barriers to clinical AI research. To address these challenges, we introduce PyHealth 2.0, an enhanced clinical deep learning toolkit that enables predictive modeling in as few as 7 lines of code. PyHealth 2.0 offers three key contributions: (1) a comprehensive toolkit addressing reproducibility and compatibility challenges by unifying 15+ datasets, 20+ clinical tasks, 25+ models, 5+ interpretability methods, and uncertainty quantification including conformal prediction within a single framework that supports diverse clinical data modalities - signals, imaging, and electronic health records - with translation of 5+ medical coding standards; (2) accessibility-focused design accommodating multimodal data and diverse computational resources with up to 39x faster processing and 20x lower memory usage, enabling work from 16GB laptops to production systems; and (3) an active open-source community of 400+ members lowering domain expertise barriers through extensive documentation, reproducible research contributions, and collaborations with academic health systems and industry partners, including multi-language support via RHealth. PyHealth 2.0 establishes an open-source foundation and community advancing accessible, reproducible healthcare AI. Available at pip install pyhealth.

Nature Medicine, Published online: 16 January 2026; doi:10.1038/s41591-025-04073-z

Analyses of liver biopsies from a child with spinal muscular atrophy treated with adeno-associated virus gene therapy who developed hepatitis reveal contaminating manufacturing plasmids and disrupted vector genomes, possibly resulting from recombination events.

arXiv:2511.17714v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Standard decision frameworks address uncertainty about facts but assume fixed options and values. We extend the Jeffrey-Bolker framework to model refinements in values and prove a value-of-information theorem for axiological refinement. In multi-agent settings, we establish that mutual refinement will characteristically transform zero-sum games into positive-sum interactions and yield Pareto-improvements in Nash bargaining. These results show that a framework of rational choice can be extended to model value refinement. By unifying epistemic and axiological refinement under a single formalism, we broaden the conceptual foundations of rational choice and illuminate the normative status of ethical deliberation.

arXiv:2512.00949v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: For patients undergoing systemic cancer therapy, the time between clinic visits is full of uncertainties and risks of unmonitored side effects. To bridge this gap in care, we developed and prospectively trialed a multi-modal AI framework for remote patient monitoring (RPM). This system integrates multi-modal data from the HALO-X platform, such as demographics, wearable sensors, daily surveys, and clinical events. Our observational trial is one of the largest of its kind and has collected over 2.1 million data points (6,080 patient-days) of monitoring from 84 patients. We developed and adapted a multi-modal AI model to handle the asynchronous and incomplete nature of real-world RPM data, forecasting a continuous risk of future adverse events. The model achieved an accuracy of 83.9% (AUROC=0.70). Notably, the model identified previous treatments, wellness check-ins, and daily maximum heart rate as key predictive features. A case study demonstrated the model's ability to provide early warnings by outputting escalating risk profiles prior to the event. This work establishes the feasibility of multi-modal AI RPM for cancer care and offers a path toward more proactive patient support.(Accepted at Europe NeurIPS 2025 Multimodal Representation Learning for Healthcare Workshop. Best Paper Poster Award.)

arXiv:2509.19088v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scientists and practitioners are aggressively moving to deploy digital twins - LLM-based models of real individuals - across social science and policy research. We conducted 19 pre-registered studies with 164 diverse outcomes (e.g., attitudes towards hiring algorithms, intention to share misinformation) and compared human responses to those of their digital twins (trained on each person's previous answers to over 500 questions). We find that digital twins' answers are only modestly more accurate than those from the homogeneous base LLM and correlate weakly with human responses (average r = 0.20). We document five ways in which digital twins distort human behavior: (i) stereotyping, (ii) insufficient individuation, (iii) representation bias, (iv) ideological biases, and (v) hyper-rationality. Together, our results caution against the premature deployment of digital twins, which may systematically misrepresent human cognition and undermine both scientific understanding and practical applications.

Many people use peer online forums to seek support for health-related problems. More research is needed to understand the impacts of forum use, and how these are generated. However, there are significant ethical and practical challenges with the methods available to do the required research. We examine the key challenges associated with conducting each of the most commonly used online data collection methods: surveys, interviews, forum post analysis; and triangulation of these methods. Based on our learning from the Improving Peer Online Forums (iPOF) study, an inter-disciplinary realist informed mixed methods evaluation of peer online forums, we outline strategies that can be used to address key issues pertaining to assessing important outcomes, facilitating participation, validating participants (users who consent to take part in one or more parts of the study), protecting anonymity, gaining consent, managing risk, multi-stakeholder engagement, and triangulation. We share this learning to support researchers, reviewers, and ethics committees faced with deciding how best to address these challenges. We highlight the need for ongoing open, transparent discussion to ensure the research field keeps pace with evolving technology design and societal attitudes to online data use.

arXiv:2512.13700v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Manual chart review remains an extremely time-consuming and resource-intensive component of clinical research, requiring experts to extract often complex information from unstructured electronic health record (EHR) narratives. We present a secure, modular framework for automated structured feature extraction from clinical notes leveraging locally deployed large language models (LLMs) on institutionally approved, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPPA)-compliant compute infrastructure. This system integrates retrieval augmented generation (RAG) and structured response methods of LLMs into a widely deployable and scalable container to provide feature extraction for diverse clinical domains. In evaluation, the framework achieved high accuracy across multiple medical characteristics present in large bodies of patient notes when compared against an expert-annotated dataset and identified several annotation errors missed in manual review. This framework demonstrates the potential of LLM systems to reduce the burden of manual chart review through automated extraction and increase consistency in data capture, accelerating clinical research.

Background: Computer perception (CP) technologies hold significant promise for advancing precision mental health care systems, given their ability to leverage algorithmic analysis of continuous, passive sensing data from wearables and smartphones (eg, behavioral activity, geolocation, vocal features, and ambient environmental data) to infer clinically meaningful behavioral and physiological states. However, successful implementation critically depends on cultivating well-founded stakeholder trust. Objective: This study aims to investigate, across adolescents, caregivers, clinicians, and developers, the contingencies under which CP technologies are deemed trustworthy in health care. Methods: We conducted 80 semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of adolescents (n=20) diagnosed with autism, Tourette syndrome, anxiety, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and their caregivers (n=20); practicing clinicians across psychiatry, psychology, and pediatrics (n=20); and CP system developers (n=20). Interview transcripts were coded by 2 independent coders and analyzed using multistage, inductive thematic content analysis to identify prominent themes. Results: Across stakeholder groups, 5 core criteria emerged as prerequisites for trust in CP outputs: (1) epistemic alignment—consistency between system outputs, personal experience, and existing diagnostic frameworks; (2) demonstrable rigor—training on representative data and validation in real-world contexts; (3) explainability—transparent communication of input variables, thresholds, and decision logic; (4) sensitivity to complexity—the capacity to accommodate heterogeneity and comorbidity in symptom expression; and (5) a nonsubstitutive role—technologies must augment, rather than supplant, clinical judgment. A novel and cautionary finding was that epistemic alignment—whether outputs affirmed participants’ preexisting beliefs, diagnostic expectations, or internal states—was a dominant factor in determining whether the tool was perceived as trustworthy. Participants also expressed relational trust, placing confidence in CP systems based on endorsements from respected peers, academic institutions, or regulatory agencies. However, both trust strategies raise significant concerns: confirmation bias may lead users to overvalue outputs that align with their assumptions, while surrogate trust may be misapplied in the absence of robust performance validation. Conclusions: This study advances empirical understanding of how trust is formed and calibrated around artificial intelligence–based CP technologies. While trust is commonly framed as a function of technical performance, our findings show that it is deeply shaped by cognitive heuristics, social relationships, and alignment with entrenched epistemologies. These dynamics can facilitate intuitive verification but may also constrain the transformative potential of CP systems by reinforcing existing beliefs. To address this, we recommend a dual strategy: (1) embedding CP tools within institutional frameworks that uphold rigorous validation, ethical oversight, and transparent design; and (2) providing clinicians with training and interface designs that support critical appraisal and minimize susceptibility to cognitive bias. Recalibrating trust to reflect actual system capacities—rather than familiarity or endorsement—is essential for ethically sound and clinically meaningful integration of CP technologies.

Nature, Published online: 10 December 2025; doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09792-4

High-depth sequencing of non-cancerous tissue from patients with metastatic cancer reveals single-base mutational signatures of alcohol, smoking and cancer treatments, and reveals how exogenous factors, including cancer therapies, affect somatic cell evolution.

WASHINGTON — Congress is poised to pass the Biosecure Act after two years of incremental changes that watered down the bill’s curbs on Chinese biotechs and made the law more palatable for U.S. biopharma companies. 

The House passed a defense budget bill today that includes Biosecure, which restricts how U.S. pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies do business with Chinese companies that are determined to be working with the Chinese military and Communist Party. It also aims to prevent those companies from acquiring Americans’ sensitive genetic data. 

The Senate is expected to vote next week on the National Defense Authorization Act, including Biosecure. Congress has passed the NDAA each year for several decades. 

Continue to STAT+ to read the full story…

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arXiv:2512.00949v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For patients undergoing systemic cancer therapy, the time between clinic visits is full of uncertainties and risks of unmonitored side effects. To bridge this gap in care, we developed and prospectively trialed a multi-modal AI framework for remote patient monitoring (RPM). This system integrates multi-modal data from the HALO-X platform, such as demographics, wearable sensors, daily surveys, and clinical events. Our observational trial is one of the largest of its kind and has collected over 2.1 million data points (6,080 patient-days) of monitoring from 84 patients. We developed and adapted a multi-modal AI model to handle the asynchronous and incomplete nature of real-world RPM data, forecasting a continuous risk of future adverse events. The model achieved an accuracy of 83.9% (AUROC=0.70). Notably, the model identified previous treatments, wellness check-ins, and daily maximum heart rate as key predictive features. A case study demonstrated the model's ability to provide early warnings by outputting escalating risk profiles prior to the event. This work establishes the feasibility of multi-modal AI RPM for cancer care and offers a path toward more proactive patient support.(Accepted at Europe NeurIPS 2025 Multimodal Representation Learning for Healthcare Workshop)

arXiv:2504.07139v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Welcome to the eighth edition of the AI Index report. The 2025 Index is our most comprehensive to date and arrives at an important moment, as AI's influence across society, the economy, and global governance continues to intensify. New in this year's report are in-depth analyses of the evolving landscape of AI hardware, novel estimates of inference costs, and new analyses of AI publication and patenting trends. We also introduce fresh data on corporate adoption of responsible AI practices, along with expanded coverage of AI's growing role in science and medicine. Since its founding in 2017 as an offshoot of the One Hundred Year Study of Artificial Intelligence, the AI Index has been committed to equipping policymakers, journalists, executives, researchers, and the public with accurate, rigorously validated, and globally sourced data. Our mission has always been to help these stakeholders make better-informed decisions about the development and deployment of AI. In a world where AI is discussed everywhere - from boardrooms to kitchen tables - this mission has never been more essential. The AI Index continues to lead in tracking and interpreting the most critical trends shaping the field - from the shifting geopolitical landscape and the rapid evolution of underlying technologies, to AI's expanding role in business, policymaking, and public life. Longitudinal tracking remains at the heart of our mission. In a domain advancing at breakneck speed, the Index provides essential context - helping us understand where AI stands today, how it got here, and where it may be headed next. Recognized globally as one of the most authoritative resources on artificial intelligence, the AI Index has been cited in major media outlets such as The New York Times, Bloomberg, and The Guardian; referenced in hundreds of academic papers; and used by policymakers and government agencies around the world.

arXiv:2511.09894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are critical to patient survival in emergencies, but first responders often face intense cognitive demands in high-stakes situations. AI cognitive assistants, acting as virtual partners, have the potential to ease this burden by supporting real-time data collection and decision making. In pursuit of this vision, we introduce EgoEMS, the first end-to-end, high-fidelity, multimodal, multiperson dataset capturing over 20 hours of realistic, procedural EMS activities from an egocentric view in 233 simulated emergency scenarios performed by 62 participants, including 46 EMS professionals. Developed in collaboration with EMS experts and aligned with national standards, EgoEMS is captured using an open-source, low-cost, and replicable data collection system and is annotated with keysteps, timestamped audio transcripts with speaker diarization, action quality metrics, and bounding boxes with segmentation masks. Emphasizing realism, the dataset includes responder-patient interactions reflecting real-world emergency dynamics. We also present a suite of benchmarks for real-time multimodal keystep recognition and action quality estimation, essential for developing AI support tools for EMS. We hope EgoEMS inspires the research community to push the boundaries of intelligent EMS systems and ultimately contribute to improved patient outcomes.

npj Digital Medicine, Published online: 12 November 2025; doi:10.1038/s41746-025-02013-2

Equipping mathematical models for hospital dynamics using information theory

arXiv:2511.04698v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The early detection of mental health disorders from social media text is critical for enabling timely support, risk assessment, and referral to appropriate resources. This work introduces multiMentalRoBERTa, a fine-tuned RoBERTa model designed for multiclass classification of common mental health conditions, including stress, anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suicidal ideation, and neutral discourse. Drawing on multiple curated datasets, data exploration is conducted to analyze class overlaps, revealing strong correlations between depression and suicidal ideation as well as anxiety and PTSD, while stress emerges as a broad, overlapping category. Comparative experiments with traditional machine learning methods, domain-specific transformers, and prompting-based large language models demonstrate that multiMentalRoBERTa achieves superior performance, with macro F1-scores of 0.839 in the six-class setup and 0.870 in the five-class setup (excluding stress), outperforming both fine-tuned MentalBERT and baseline classifiers. Beyond predictive accuracy, explainability methods, including Layer Integrated Gradients and KeyBERT, are applied to identify lexical cues that drive classification, with a particular focus on distinguishing depression from suicidal ideation. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of fine-tuned transformers for reliable and interpretable detection in sensitive contexts, while also underscoring the importance of fairness, bias mitigation, and human-in-the-loop safety protocols. Overall, multiMentalRoBERTa is presented as a lightweight, robust, and deployable solution for enhancing support in mental health platforms.

arXiv:2509.19088v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Digital representations of individuals ("digital twins") promise to transform social science and decision-making. Yet it remains unclear whether such twins truly mirror the people they emulate. We conducted 19 preregistered studies with a representative U.S. panel and their digital twins, each constructed from rich individual-level data, enabling direct comparisons between human and twin behavior across a wide range of domains and stimuli (including never-seen-before ones). Twins reproduced individual responses with 75% accuracy and seemingly low correlation with human answers (approximately 0.2). However, this apparently high accuracy was no higher than that achieved by generic personas based on demographics only. In contrast, correlation improved when twins incorporated detailed personal information, even outperforming traditional machine learning benchmarks that require additional data. Twins exhibited systematic strengths and weaknesses - performing better in social and personality domains, but worse in political ones - and were more accurate for participants with higher education, higher income, and moderate political views and religious attendance. Together, these findings delineate both the promise and the current limits of digital twins: they capture some relative differences among individuals but not yet the unique judgments of specific people. All data and code are publicly available to support the further development and evaluation of digital twin pipelines.

npj Digital Medicine, Published online: 05 November 2025; doi:10.1038/s41746-025-02005-2

Evaluating clinical AI summaries with large language models as judges

arXiv:2510.26995v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident. To evaluate this behavior, we introduce FermiEval, a benchmark of Fermi-style estimation questions with a rigorous scoring rule for confidence interval coverage and sharpness. Across several modern models, nominal 99\% intervals cover the true answer only 65\% of the time on average. With a conformal prediction based approach that adjusts the intervals, we obtain accurate 99\% observed coverage, and the Winkler interval score decreases by 54\%. We also propose direct log-probability elicitation and quantile adjustment methods, which further reduce overconfidence at high confidence levels. Finally, we develop a perception-tunnel theory explaining why LLMs exhibit overconfidence: when reasoning under uncertainty, they act as if sampling from a truncated region of their inferred distribution, neglecting its tails.