arXiv:2603.22328v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Despite the strong predictive performance achieved by machine learning models across many application domains, assessing their trustworthiness through reliable estimates of predictive confidence remains a critical challenge. This issue arises in scenarios where the likelihood of error inferred from learned representations follows a bimodal distribution, resulting from the coexistence of confident and ambiguous predictions. Standard regression approaches often struggle to adequately express this predictive uncertainty, as they implicitly assume unimodal Gaussian noise, leading to mean-collapse behavior in such settings. Although Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) can represent different distributions, they suffer from severe optimization instability. We propose a family of distribution-aware loss functions integrating normalized RMSE with Wasserstein and Cram\'er distances. When applied to standard deep regression models, our approach recovers bimodal distributions without the volatility of mixture models. Validated across four experimental stages, our results show that the proposed Wasserstein loss establishes a new Pareto efficiency frontier: matching the stability of standard regression losses like MSE in unimodal tasks while reducing Jensen-Shannon Divergence by 45% on complex bimodal datasets. Our framework strictly dominates MDNs in both fidelity and robustness, offering a reliable tool for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in trustworthy AI systems.

arXiv:2603.22900v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Optimizing survival outcomes, such as patient survival or customer retention, is a critical objective in data-driven decision-making. Off-Policy Evaluation~(OPE) provides a powerful framework for assessing such decision-making policies using logged data alone, without the need for costly or risky online experiments in high-stakes applications. However, typical estimators are not designed to handle right-censored survival outcomes, as they ignore unobserved survival times beyond the censoring time, leading to systematic underestimation of the true policy performance. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework for OPE and Off-Policy Learning~(OPL) tailored for survival outcomes under censoring. Specifically, we introduce IPCW-IPS and IPCW-DR, which employ the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting technique to explicitly deal with censoring bias. We theoretically establish that our estimators are unbiased and that IPCW-DR achieves double robustness, ensuring consistency if either the propensity score or the outcome model is correct. Furthermore, we extend this framework to constrained OPL to optimize policy value under budget constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate their practical impacts using public real-world data for both evaluation and learning tasks.

arXiv:2603.23220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study learning under regime variation, where the learner, its memory state, and the evaluative conditions may evolve over time. This paper is a foundational and structural contribution: its goal is to define the core learning-theoretic objects required for such settings and to establish their first theorem-supporting consequences. The paper develops a regime-varying framework centered on admissible transport, protected-core preservation, and evaluator-aware learning evolution. It records the immediate closure consequences of admissibility, develops a structural obstruction argument for faithful fixed-ontology reduction in genuinely multi-regime settings, and introduces a protected-stability template together with explicit numerical and symbolic witnesses on controlled subclasses, including convex and deductive settings. It also establishes theorem-layer results on evaluator factorization, morphisms, composition, and partial kernel-level alignment across semantically commensurable layers. A worked two-regime example makes the admissibility certificate, protected evaluative core, and regime-variation cost explicit on a controlled subclass. The symbolic component is deliberately restricted in scope: the paper establishes a first kernel-level compatibility result together with a controlled monotonic deductive witness. The manuscript should therefore be read as introducing a structured learning-theoretic framework for regime-varying learning together with its first theorem-supporting layer, not as a complete quantitative theory of all learning systems.

arXiv:2603.23398v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Energy-based models for discrete domains, such as graphs, explicitly capture relative likelihoods, naturally enabling composable probabilistic inference tasks like conditional generation or enforcing constraints at test-time. However, discrete energy-based models typically struggle with efficient and high-quality sampling, as off-support regions often contain spurious local minima, trapping samplers and causing training instabilities. This has historically resulted in a fidelity gap relative to discrete diffusion models. We introduce Graph Energy Matching (GEM), a generative framework for graphs that closes this fidelity gap. Motivated by the transport map optimization perspective of the Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto (JKO) scheme, GEM learns a permutation-invariant potential energy that simultaneously provides transport-aligned guidance from noise toward data and refines samples within regions of high data likelihood. Further, we introduce a sampling protocol that leverages an energy-based switch to seamlessly bridge: (i) rapid, gradient-guided transport toward high-probability regions to (ii) a mixing regime for exploration of the learned graph distribution. On molecular graph benchmarks, GEM matches or exceeds strong discrete diffusion baselines. Beyond sample quality, explicit modeling of relative likelihood enables targeted exploration at inference time, facilitating compositional generation, property-constrained sampling, and geodesic interpolation between graphs.

arXiv:2504.14094v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Concept-based Models aim to improve interpretability by predicting high-level intermediate concepts, representing a promising approach for deployment in high-risk scenarios. However, they are known to suffer from information leakage, whereby models exploit unintended information encoded within the learned concepts. We introduce an information-theoretic framework to rigorously characterise and quantify leakage, and define two complementary measures: the concepts-task leakage (CTL) and interconcept leakage (ICL) scores. We show that these measures are strongly predictive of model behaviour under interventions and outperform existing alternatives. Using this framework, we identify the primary causes of leakage and, as a case study, analyse how it manifests in Concept Embedding Models, revealing interconcept and alignment leakage in addition to the concepts-task leakage present by design. Finally, we present a set of practical guidelines for designing concept-based models to reduce leakage and ensure interpretability.

arXiv:2510.08294v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We address the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data. Pearl (2000) argues that counterfactuals must be identifiable (i.e., recoverable from the observed data distribution) to justify causal claims. A recent line of work on counterfactual inference shows promising results but lacks identification, undermining the causal validity of its estimates. To address this, we establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings under standard criteria. We characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map with tools from dynamic optimal transport, ensuring consistent inference. Building on this, we validate the theory in controlled scenarios with counterfactual ground-truth and demonstrate improvements in axiomatic counterfactual soundness on real images.

arXiv:2601.13698v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Fairness and privacy are two vital pillars of trustworthy machine learning. Despite extensive research on these individual topics, their relationship has received significantly less attention. In this paper, we utilize an information-theoretic measure Chernoff Information to characterize the fundamental trade-off between fairness, privacy, and accuracy, as induced by the input data distribution. We first propose Chernoff Difference, a notion of data fairness, along with its noisy variant, Noisy Chernoff Difference, which allows us to analyze both fairness and privacy simultaneously. Through simple Gaussian examples, we show that Noisy Chernoff Difference exhibits three qualitatively distinct behaviors depending on the underlying data distribution. To extend this analysis beyond synthetic settings, we develop the Chernoff Information Neural Estimator (CINE), the first neural network-based estimator of Chernoff Information for unknown distributions. We apply CINE to analyze the Noisy Chernoff Difference on real-world datasets. Together, this work fills a critical gap in the literature by providing a principled, data-dependent characterization of the fairness-privacy interaction.

arXiv:2603.12288v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Tabular machine learning presents a paradox: modern models achieve state-of-the-art performance using high-dimensional (high-D), collinear, error-prone data, defying the "Garbage In, Garbage Out" mantra. To help resolve this, we synthesize principles from Information Theory, Latent Factor Models, and Psychometrics, clarifying that predictive robustness arises not solely from data cleanliness, but from the synergy between data architecture and model capacity. Partitioning predictor-space "noise" into "Predictor Error" and "Structural Uncertainty" (informational deficits from stochastic generative mappings), we prove that leveraging high-D sets of error-prone predictors asymptotically overcomes both types of noise, whereas cleaning a low-D set is fundamentally bounded by Structural Uncertainty. We demonstrate why "Informative Collinearity" (dependencies from shared latent causes) enhances reliability and convergence efficiency, and explain why increased dimensionality reduces the latent inference burden, enabling feasibility with finite samples. To address practical constraints, we propose "Proactive Data-Centric AI" to identify predictors that enable robustness efficiently. We also derive boundaries for Systematic Error Regimes and show why models that absorb "rogue" dependencies can mitigate assumption violations. Linking latent architecture to Benign Overfitting, we offer a first step towards a unified view of robustness to Outcome Error and predictor-space noise, while also delineating when traditional DCAI's focus on label cleaning remains powerful. By redefining data quality from item-level perfection to portfolio-level architecture, we provide a theoretical rationale for "Local Factories" -- learning from live, uncurated enterprise "data swamps" -- supporting a deployment paradigm shift from "Model Transfer" to "Methodology Transfer'' to overcome static generalizability limitations.

arXiv:2603.12349v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scientific discovery increasingly relies on AI systems to select candidates for expensive experimental validation, yet no principled, budget-aware evaluation framework exists for comparing selection strategies -- a gap intensified by large language models (LLMs), which generate plausible scientific proposals without reliable downstream evaluation. We introduce the Budget-Sensitive Discovery Score (BSDS), a formally verified metric -- 20 theorems machine-checked by the Lean 4 proof assistant -- that jointly penalizes false discoveries (lambda-weighted FDR) and excessive abstention (gamma-weighted coverage gap) at each budget level. Its budget-averaged form, the Discovery Quality Score (DQS), provides a single summary statistic that no proposer can inflate by performing well at a cherry-picked budget. As a case study, we apply BSDS/DQS to: do LLMs add marginal value to an existing ML pipeline for drug discovery candidate selection? We evaluate 39 proposers -- 11 mechanistic variants, 14 zero-shot LLM configurations, and 14 few-shot LLM configurations -- using SMILES representations on MoleculeNet HIV (41,127 compounds, 3.5% active, 1,000 bootstrap replicates) under both random and scaffold splits. Three findings emerge. First, the simple RF-based Greedy-ML proposer achieves the best DQS (-0.046), outperforming all MLP variants and LLM configurations. Second, no LLM surpasses the Greedy-ML baseline under zero-shot or few-shot evaluation on HIV or Tox21, establishing that LLMs provide no marginal value over an existing trained classifier. Third, the proposer hierarchy generalizes across five MoleculeNet benchmarks spanning 0.18%-46.2% prevalence, a non-drug AV safety domain, and a 9x7 grid of penalty parameters (tau >= 0.636, mean tau = 0.863). The framework applies to any setting where candidates are selected under budget constraints and asymmetric error costs.

arXiv:2603.12893v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard technique for post-training diffusion-based image synthesis models, as it enables learning from reward signals to explicitly improve desirable aspects such as image quality and prompt alignment. In this paper, we propose an online RL variant that reduces the variance in the model updates by sampling paired trajectories and pulling the flow velocity in the direction of the more favorable image. Unlike existing methods that treat each sampling step as a separate policy action, we consider the entire sampling process as a single action. We experiment with both high-quality vision language models and off-the-shelf quality metrics for rewards, and evaluate the outputs using a broad set of metrics. Our method converges faster and yields higher output quality and prompt alignment than previous approaches.

arXiv:2510.09816v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent experiments in neuroscience reveal that task-relevant variables are often encoded in approximately orthogonal subspaces of neural population activity. These disentangled, or abstract, representations have been observed in multiple brain areas and across different species. These representations have been shown to support out of distribution generalization and rapid learning of novel tasks. The mechanisms by which these representations emerge remain poorly understood, especially in the case of supervised task behavior. Here, we show mathematically that abstract representations of latent variables are guaranteed to appear in the hidden layer of feedforward nonlinear networks when they are trained on tasks that depend directly on these latent variables. These learned abstract representations reflect the semantics of the input stimuli. To show this, we reformulate the usual optimization over the network weights into a mean field optimization problem over the distribution of neural preactivations. We then apply this framework to finite-width ReLU networks and show that the hidden layer of these networks will exhibit an abstract representation at all global minima of the task objective. Finally, we extend our findings to two broad families of activation functions as well as deep feedforward architectures. Together, our results provide an explanation for the widely observed abstract representations in both the brain and artificial neural networks. In addition, the general framework that we develop here provides a mathematically tractable toolkit for understanding the emergence of different kinds of representations in task-optimized, feature-learning network models.

arXiv:2512.11946v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Explainable machine learning techniques have gained increasing attention in engineering applications, especially in aerospace design and analysis, where understanding how input variables influence data-driven models is essential. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) are widely used for interpreting black-box models by showing the average effect of an input variable on the prediction. However, their global sensitivity metric can be misleading when strong interactions are present, as averaging tends to obscure interaction effects. To address this limitation, we propose a global sensitivity metric based on Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves. The method computes the expected feature importance across ICE curves, along with their standard deviation, to more effectively capture the influence of interactions. We provide a mathematical proof demonstrating that the PDP-based sensitivity is a lower bound of the proposed ICE-based metric under truncated orthogonal polynomial expansion. In addition, we introduce an ICE-based correlation value to quantify how interactions modify the relationship between inputs and the output. Comparative evaluations were performed on three cases: a 5-variable analytical function, a 5-variable wind-turbine fatigue problem, and a 9-variable airfoil aerodynamics case, where ICE-based sensitivity was benchmarked against PDP, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Sobol' indices. The results show that ICE-based feature importance provides richer insights than the traditional PDP-based approach, while visual interpretations from PDP, ICE, and SHAP complement one another by offering multiple perspectives.

arXiv:2603.06957v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study post-training linear autoregressive models with outcome and process rewards. Given a context $\boldsymbol{x}$, the model must predict the response $\boldsymbol{y} \in Y^N$, a sequence of length $N$ that satisfies a $\gamma$ margin condition, an extension of the standard separability to sequences. We prove that on test samples where the base model achieves a non-trivial likelihood $\alpha$, a variant of policy gradient (PG) can achieve likelihood $1 - \varepsilon$ with an essentially minimax optimal number of reward queries $\tilde{O}((\alpha^{-1} + \varepsilon^{-1})/\gamma^2)$. However, a barrier arises for going beyond the support of the base model. We prove that the overall expected error after post-training with outcome rewards is governed by a property of the base model called the Likelihood Quantile (LQ), and that variants of PG, while minimax optimal, may require a number of reward queries exponential in $N$ to go beyond this support, regardless of the pre-training algorithm. To overcome this barrier, we study post-training with a process reward model, and demonstrate how PG variants in this setting avoid the curse of dimensionality in $N$ via dependence on a token-level LQ. Along the way, we prove that under the margin condition, SGD with adaptive learning rate (LR) achieves a near optimal test error for statistical learning, and PG with adaptive LR achieves a near optimal number of mistakes for online learning while being computationally efficient whenever possible, both of which may be of independent interest.

arXiv:2603.06984v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent work has proposed powerful frameworks, rooted in causal theory, to quantify fairness. Causal inference has primarily emphasized the detection of \emph{average} treatment effects (ATEs), and subsequent notions of fairness have inherited this focus. In this paper, we build on previous concerns about regulation based on averages. In particular, we formulate the "causal masking problem" as a linear program that optimizes an alternative objective, such as maximizing profit or minimizing crime, while retaining a zero ATE (i.e., the ATE between a protected attribute and a decision). By studying the capabilities and limitations of causal masking, we show that optimization under ATE-based regulation may induce significant unequal treatment. We demonstrate that the divergence between true and causally masked fairness is driven by confounding, underscoring the importance of full conditional-independence testing when assessing fairness. Finally, we discuss statistical and information-theoretic limitations that make causally masked solutions very difficult to detect, allowing them to persist for long periods. These results argue that we must regulate fairness at the model-level, rather than at the decision level.

arXiv:2603.07313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Robustness under latent distribution shift remains challenging in partially observable reinforcement learning. We formalize a focused setting where an adversary selects a hidden initial latent distribution before the episode, termed an adversarial latent-initial-state POMDP. Theoretically, we prove a latent minimax principle, characterize worst-case defender distributions, and derive approximate best-response certificates with finite-sample guarantees, providing formal meaning to empirical training diagnostics. Empirically, using a Battleship benchmark, we demonstrate that targeted exposure to shifted latent distributions reduces average robustness gaps between Spread and Uniform distributions from 10.3 to 3.1 shots at equal budget. Furthermore, iterative best-response training exhibits budget-sensitive behavior entirely consistent with our approximate certificate theory. Ultimately, we show that for latent-initial-state problems, our framework yields precise diagnostic principles and confirms that structured adversarial exposure effectively mitigates worst-case vulnerabilities.

arXiv:2603.07887v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inference-time methods that aggregate and prune multiple samples have emerged as a powerful paradigm for steering large language models, yet we lack any principled understanding of their accuracy-cost tradeoffs. In this paper, we introduce a route to rigorously study such approaches using the lens of *particle filtering* algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Given a base language model and a *process reward model* estimating expected terminal rewards, we ask: *how accurately can we sample from a target distribution given some number of process reward evaluations?* Theoretically, we identify (1) simple criteria enabling non-asymptotic guarantees for SMC; (2) algorithmic improvements to SMC; and (3) a fundamental limit faced by all particle filtering methods. Empirically, we demonstrate that our theoretical criteria effectively govern the *sampling error* of SMC, though not necessarily its final *accuracy*, suggesting that theoretical perspectives beyond sampling may be necessary.

arXiv:2603.08349v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a new method for generating plausible counterfactual explanations for time series classification problems. The approach performs gradient-based optimization directly in the input space. To enforce plausibility, we integrate soft-DTW (dynamic time warping) alignment with $k$-nearest neighbors from the target class, which effectively encourages the generated counterfactuals to adopt a realistic temporal structure. The overall optimization objective is a multi-faceted loss function that balances key counterfactual properties. It incorporates losses for validity, sparsity, and proximity, alongside the novel soft-DTW-based plausibility component. We conduct an evaluation of our method against several strong reference approaches, measuring the key properties of the generated counterfactuals across multiple dimensions. The results demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance in validity while significantly outperforming existing approaches in distributional alignment with the target class, indicating superior temporal realism. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis highlights the critical limitations of existing methods in preserving realistic temporal structure. This work shows that the proposed method consistently generates counterfactual explanations for time series classifiers that are not only valid but also highly plausible and consistent with temporal patterns.

arXiv:2509.12783v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Inferring the biophysical parameters of conductance-based models (CBMs) from experimentally accessible recordings remains a central challenge in computational neuroscience. Spike times are the most widely available data, yet they reveal little about which combinations of ion channel conductances generate the observed activity. This inverse problem is further complicated by neuronal degeneracy, where multiple distinct conductance sets yield similar spiking patterns. We introduce a method that addresses this challenge by combining deep learning with Dynamic Input Conductances (DICs), a theoretical framework that reduces complex CBMs to three interpretable feedback components governing excitability and firing patterns. Our approach first maps spike times to DIC densities at threshold using a neural network that learns a low-dimensional representation of neuronal activity. The predicted DIC values are then used to generate degenerate CBM populations via an iterative compensation algorithm, ensuring compatibility with the intermediate target DICs, and thereby reproducing the corresponding firing patterns, even in high-dimensional models. Applied to two models, this algorithmic pipeline reconstructs spiking and bursting regimes with high accuracy and robustness to variability, including spike trains generated under noisy current injection mimicking physiological stochasticity. It produces diverse degenerate populations within milliseconds on standard hardware, enabling scalable and efficient inference from spike recordings alone. Together, this work positions DICs as a practical and interpretable link between experimentally observed activity and mechanistic models. By enabling fast and scalable reconstruction of degenerate populations directly from spike times, our approach provides a powerful way to investigate how neurons exploit conductance variability to achieve reliable computation.

arXiv:2010.01388v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Moments when a time series changes its behavior are called change points. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two change-point detection approaches based on neural networks and online learning. These algorithms demonstrate linear computational complexity and are suitable for change-point detection in large time series. We compare them with the best known algorithms on various synthetic and real world data sets. Experiments show that the proposed methods outperform known approaches. We also prove the convergence of the algorithms to the optimal solutions and describe conditions rendering current approach more powerful than offline one.

arXiv:2408.00329v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to small adversarial perturbations of the inputs, posing a significant challenge to their reliability and robustness. Empirical methods such as adversarial training can defend against particular attacks but remain vulnerable to more powerful attacks. Alternatively, Lipschitz networks provide certified robustness to unseen perturbations but lack sufficient expressive power. To harness the advantages of both approaches, we design a novel two-step Optimal Transport induced Adversarial Defense (OTAD) model that can fit the training data accurately while preserving the local Lipschitz continuity. First, we train a DNN with a regularizer derived from optimal transport theory, yielding a discrete optimal transport map linking data to its features. By leveraging the map's inherent regularity, we interpolate the map by solving the convex integration problem (CIP) to guarantee the local Lipschitz property. OTAD is extensible to diverse architectures of ResNet and Transformer, making it suitable for complex data. For efficient computation, the CIP can be solved through training neural networks. OTAD opens a novel avenue for developing reliable and secure deep learning systems through the regularity of optimal transport maps. Empirical results demonstrate that OTAD can outperform other robust models on diverse datasets.