arXiv:2603.07438v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Regulatory stress testing requires projecting credit losses under hypothetical macroeconomic scenarios -- a fundamentally causal question typically treated as a prediction problem. We propose a framework for policy-path counterfactual inference in panels that transparently separates what can be learned from data from what requires assumptions about confounding. Our approach has four components: (i) observational identification of path-conditional means via iterated regression, enabling continuous macro-path contrasts without requiring a control group; (ii) causal set identification under bounded confounding, yielding sharp identified sets with interpretable breakdown values that communicate robustness in a single number; (iii) an oracle inequality showing that recursive rollout error is governed by a horizon-dependent amplification factor, providing a concrete answer to how far ahead one can reliably predict under stress; and (iv) importance-weighted conformal calibration bands with diagnostics that quantify extrapolation cost and trigger abstention when coverage guarantees degrade. The final output is a three-layer uncertainty decomposition that cleanly separates estimation uncertainty from confounding uncertainty. We validate all results through simulation and semi-synthetic experiments with real unemployment data, including a Covid retrospective demonstrating the framework's diagnostic value under extreme scenarios.

arXiv:2603.07444v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have enabled agent-based systems that aim to automate scientific research workflows. Most existing approaches focus on fully autonomous discovery, where AI systems generate research ideas, conduct analyses, and produce manuscripts with minimal human involvement. However, empirical research in economics and the social sciences poses additional constraints: research questions must be grounded in available datasets, identification strategies require careful design, and human judgment remains essential for evaluating economic significance. We introduce HLER (Human-in-the-Loop Economic Research), a multi-agent architecture that supports empirical research automation while preserving critical human oversight. The system orchestrates specialized agents for data auditing, data profiling, hypothesis generation, econometric analysis, manuscript drafting, and automated review. A key design principle is dataset-aware hypothesis generation, where candidate research questions are constrained by dataset structure, variable availability, and distributional diagnostics, reducing infeasible or hallucinated hypotheses. HLER further implements a two-loop architecture: a question quality loop that screens and selects feasible hypotheses, and a research revision loop where automated review triggers re-analysis and manuscript revision. Human decision gates are embedded at key stages, allowing researchers to guide the automated pipeline. Experiments on three empirical datasets show that dataset-aware hypothesis generation produces feasible research questions in 87% of cases (versus 41% under unconstrained generation), while complete empirical manuscripts can be produced at an average API cost of $0.8-$1.5 per run. These results suggest that Human-AI collaborative pipelines may provide a practical path toward scalable empirical research.

arXiv:2603.07717v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We test whether LLMs show robust decision biases. Treating models as participants in two-arm bandits, we ran 20000 trials per condition across four decoding configurations. Under symmetric rewards, models amplified positional order into stubborn one-arm policies. Under asymmetric rewards, they exploited rigidly yet underperformed an oracle and rarely re-checked. The observed patterns were consistent across manipulations of temperature and top-p, with top-k held at the provider default, indicating that the qualitative behaviours are robust to the two decoding knobs typically available to practitioners. Crucially, moving beyond descriptive metrics to computational modelling, a hierarchical Rescorla-Wagner-softmax fit revealed the underlying strategies: low learning rates and very high inverse temperatures, which together explain both noise-to-bias amplification and rigid exploitation. These results position minimal bandits as a tractable probe of LLM decision tendencies and motivate hypotheses about how such biases could shape human-AI interaction.

arXiv:2603.07916v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In recent advances, to enable a fully data-driven learning paradigm on relational databases (RDB), relational deep learning (RDL) is proposed to structure the RDB as a heterogeneous entity graph and adopt the graph neural network (GNN) as the predictive model. However, existing RDL methods neglect the imbalance problem of relational data in RDBs and risk under-representing the minority entities, leading to an unusable model in practice. In this work, we investigate, for the first time, class imbalance problem in RDB entity classification and design the relation-centric minority synthetic over-sampling GNN (Rel-MOSS), in order to fill a critical void in the current literature. Specifically, to mitigate the issue of minority-related information being submerged by majority counterparts, we design the relation-wise gating controller to modulate neighborhood messages from each individual relation type. Based on the relational-gated representations, we further propose the relation-guided minority synthesizer for over-sampling, which integrates the entity relational signatures to maintain relational consistency. Extensive experiments on 12 entity classification datasets provide compelling evidence for the superiority of Rel-MOSS, yielding an average improvement of up to 2.46% and 4.00% in terms of Balanced Accuracy and G-Mean, compared with SOTA RDL methods and classic methods for handling class imbalance.

arXiv:2603.07978v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: General-purpose computer-use agents have shown impressive performance across diverse digital environments. However, our new benchmark, OSExpert-Eval, indicates they remain far less helpful than human experts. Although inference-time scaling enables adaptation, these agents complete complex tasks inefficiently with degraded performance, transfer poorly to unseen UIs, and struggle with fine-grained action sequences. To solve the problem, we introduce a GUI-based depth-first search (GUI-DFS) exploration algorithm to comprehensively explore and verify an environment's unit functions. The agent then exploits compositionality between unit skills to self-construct a curriculum for composite tasks. To support fine-grained actions, we curate a database of action primitives for agents to discover during exploration; these are saved as a skill set once the exploration is complete. We use the learned skills to improve the agent's performance and efficiency by (1) enriching agents with ready-to-use procedural knowledge, allowing them to plan only once for long trajectories and generate accurate actions, and (2) enabling them to end inference-time scaling earlier by realizing their boundary of capabilities. Extensive experiments show that our environment-learned agent takes a meaningful step toward expert-level computer use, achieving a around 20 percent performance gain on OSExpert-Eval and closing the efficiency gap to humans by around 80 percent

arXiv:2603.08035v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reward modeling is essential for aligning Large Language Models(LLMs) with human preferences, yet conventional reward models suffer from poor interpretability and heavy reliance on costly expert annotations. While recent rubric-based approaches enhance evaluation transparency, they lack systematic quality control, yielding noisy and redundant criteria, failing to mitigate persistent biases (e.g., verbosity, position) in LLM evaluators, and creating a scalability-reliability trade-off. To address these limitations, we propose CDRRM (Contrast-Driven Rubric Reward Model), a framework built on a novel Contrast-then-Synthesis paradigm for high-quality rubric generation and guided preference judgment. CDRRM first conducts multi-dimensional contrastive profiling on preference pairs to identify causal discriminative factors, then synthesizes these insights into compact, context-aware rubrics to guide preference judg- ments. Extensive experiments on three authoritative benchmarks (RewardBench, RMBench, RMB) demonstrate that CDRRM achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse domains and effectively mitigates aforementioned evaluation biases. Notably, our approach delivers exceptional data efficiency: training the rubric generator on only 3k high-quality samples empowers a frozen pre-trained judge model to outperform fully fine-tuned baselines. This work offers a scalable, interpretable, and data-efficient path for reward modeling.