arXiv:2602.20134v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Epidemiological models increasingly rely on self-reported behavioral data such as vaccination status, mask usage, and social distancing adherence to forecast disease transmission and assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). While such data provide valuable real-time insights, they are often subject to strategic misreporting, driven by individual incentives to avoid penalties, access benefits, or express distrust in public health authorities. To account for such human behavior, in this paper, we introduce a game-theoretic framework that models the interaction between the population and a public health authority as a signaling game. Individuals (senders) choose how to report their behaviors, while the public health authority (receiver) updates their epidemiological model(s) based on potentially distorted signals. Focusing on deception around masking and vaccination, we characterize analytically game equilibrium outcomes and evaluate the degree to which deception can be tolerated while maintaining epidemic control through policy interventions. Our results show that separating equilibria-with minimal deception-drive infections to near zero over time. Remarkably, even under pervasive dishonesty in pooling equilibria, well-designed sender and receiver strategies can still maintain effective epidemic control. This work advances the understanding of adversarial data in epidemiology and offers tools for designing more robust public health models in the presence of strategic user behavior.

arXiv:2509.22387v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) algorithm and its variants have enabled the development of pokerbots capable of beating the best human players in heads-up (1v1) cash games and competing with them in six-player formats. However, CFR's computational complexity rises exponentially with the number of players. Furthermore, in games with three or more players, following Nash equilibrium no longer guarantees a non-losing outcome. These limitations, along with others, significantly restrict the applicability of CFR to the most popular formats: tournaments. Motivated by the recent success of Large Language Models (LLM) in chess and Diplomacy, we present SpinGPT, the first LLM tailored to Spin & Go, a popular three-player online poker format. SpinGPT is trained in two stages: (1) Supervised Fine-Tuning on 320k high-stakes expert decisions; (2) Reinforcement Learning on 270k solver-generated hands. Our results show that SpinGPT matches the solver's actions in 78% of decisions (tolerant accuracy). With a simple deep-stack heuristic, it achieves 13.4 +/- 12.9 BB/100 versus Slumbot in heads-up over 30,000 hands (95% CI). These results suggest that LLMs could be a new way to deal with multi-player imperfect-information games like poker.

arXiv:2512.16167v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Autonomous LLM-based agents are increasingly engaging in decentralized service interactions to collaboratively execute complex tasks. However, the intrinsic instability and low-cost generativity of LLMs introduce a systemic vulnerability, where self-interested agents are incentivized to pursue short-term gains through deceptive behaviors. Such strategies can rapidly proliferate within the population and precipitate a systemic trust collapse. To address this, we propose Ev-Trust, a strategy-equilibrium trust mechanism grounded in evolutionary game theory. Ev-Trust constructs a dynamic feedback loop that couples trust evaluation with evolutionary incentives, embedding interaction history and reputation directly into the agent's expected revenue function. This mechanism fundamentally reshapes the revenue structure, converting trustworthiness into a decisive survival advantage that suppresses short-sightedness. We provide a rigorous theoretical foundation based on the Replicator Dynamics, proving the asymptotic stability of Evolutionary Stable Strategies (ESS) that favor cooperation. Experimental results indicate that Ev-Trust effectively eliminates malicious strategies and enhances collective revenue, exhibiting resilience against the invasion of mutant behaviors.

arXiv:2602.16928v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Much of the advancement of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) in imperfect-information games has historically depended on manual iterative refinement of baselines. While foundational families like Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) and Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO) rest on solid theoretical ground, the design of their most effective variants often relies on human intuition to navigate a vast algorithmic design space. In this work, we propose the use of AlphaEvolve, an evolutionary coding agent powered by large language models, to automatically discover new multiagent learning algorithms. We demonstrate the generality of this framework by evolving novel variants for two distinct paradigms of game-theoretic learning. First, in the domain of iterative regret minimization, we evolve the logic governing regret accumulation and policy derivation, discovering a new algorithm, Volatility-Adaptive Discounted (VAD-)CFR. VAD-CFR employs novel, non-intuitive mechanisms-including volatility-sensitive discounting, consistency-enforced optimism, and a hard warm-start policy accumulation schedule-to outperform state-of-the-art baselines like Discounted Predictive CFR+. Second, in the regime of population based training algorithms, we evolve training-time and evaluation-time meta strategy solvers for PSRO, discovering a new variant, Smoothed Hybrid Optimistic Regret (SHOR-)PSRO. SHOR-PSRO introduces a hybrid meta-solver that linearly blends Optimistic Regret Matching with a smoothed, temperature-controlled distribution over best pure strategies. By dynamically annealing this blending factor and diversity bonuses during training, the algorithm automates the transition from population diversity to rigorous equilibrium finding, yielding superior empirical convergence compared to standard static meta-solvers.

arXiv:2602.14321v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Coalition formation concerns strategic collaborations of selfish agents that form coalitions based on their preferences. It is often assumed that coalitions are disjoint and preferences are fully known, which may not hold in practice. In this paper, we thus present a new model of coalition formation with possibly overlapping coalitions under partial information, where selfish agents may be part of multiple coalitions simultaneously and their full preferences are initially unknown. Instead, information about past interactions and associated utility feedback is stored in a fixed offline dataset, and we aim to efficiently infer the agents' preferences from this dataset. We analyze the impact of diverse dataset information constraints by studying two types of utility feedback that can be stored in the dataset: agent- and coalition-level utility feedback. For both feedback models, we identify assumptions under which the dataset covers sufficient information for an offline learning algorithm to infer preferences and use them to recover a partition that is (approximately) Nash stable, in which no agent can improve her utility by unilaterally deviating. Our additional goal is devising algorithms with low sample complexity, requiring only a small dataset to obtain a desired approximation to Nash stability. Under agent-level feedback, we provide a sample-efficient algorithm proven to obtain an approximately Nash stable partition under a sufficient and necessary assumption on the information covered by the dataset. However, under coalition-level feedback, we show that only under a stricter assumption is sufficient for sample-efficient learning. Still, in multiple cases, our algorithms' sample complexity bounds have optimality guarantees up to logarithmic factors. Finally, extensive experiments show that our algorithm converges to a low approximation level to Nash stability across diverse settings.

arXiv:2602.14471v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deploying large language model (LLM) agents in shared environments introduces a fundamental tension between individual alignment and collective stability: locally rational decisions can impose negative externalities that degrade system-level performance. We propose Socially-Weighted Alignment (SWA), a game-theoretic framework that modifies inference-time decision making by interpolating between an agent's private objective and an estimate of group welfare via a social weight $\lambda\in[0,1]$. In a shared-resource congestion game with $n$ agents and congestion severity $\beta$, we show that SWA induces a critical threshold $\lambda^*=(n-\beta)/(n-1)$ above which agents no longer have marginal incentive to increase demand under overload, yielding a phase transition from persistent congestion to stable operation near capacity. We further provide an inference-time algorithmic instantiation of SWA that does not require parameter updates or multi-agent reinforcement learning, and use a multi-agent simulation to empirically validate the predicted threshold behavior.

arXiv:2602.14553v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Despite legal mandates for the right to be forgotten, AI operators routinely fail to comply with data deletion requests. While machine unlearning (MU) provides a technical solution to remove personal data's influence from trained models, ensuring compliance remains challenging due to the fundamental gap between MU's technical feasibility and regulatory implementation. In this paper, we introduce the first economic framework for auditing MU compliance, by integrating certified unlearning theory with regulatory enforcement. We first characterize MU's inherent verification uncertainty using a hypothesis-testing interpretation of certified unlearning to derive the auditor's detection capability, and then propose a game-theoretic model to capture the strategic interactions between the auditor and the operator. A key technical challenge arises from MU-specific nonlinearities inherent in the model utility and the detection probability, which create complex strategic couplings that traditional auditing frameworks do not address and that also preclude closed-form solutions. We address this by transforming the complex bivariate nonlinear fixed-point problem into a tractable univariate auxiliary problem, enabling us to decouple the system and establish the equilibrium existence, uniqueness, and structural properties without relying on explicit solutions. Counterintuitively, our analysis reveals that the auditor can optimally reduce the inspection intensity as deletion requests increase, since the operator's weakened unlearning makes non-compliance easier to detect. This is consistent with recent auditing reductions in China despite growing deletion requests. Moreover, we prove that although undisclosed auditing offers informational advantages for the auditor, it paradoxically reduces the regulatory cost-effectiveness relative to disclosed auditing.

arXiv:2512.17979v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Industrial symbiosis fosters circularity by enabling firms to repurpose residual resources, yet its emergence is constrained by socio-spatial frictions that shape costs, matching opportunities, and market efficiency. Existing models often overlook the interaction between spatial structure, market design, and adaptive firm behavior, limiting our understanding of where and how symbiosis arises. We develop an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms trade byproducts through a spatially embedded double-auction market, with prices and quantities emerging endogenously from local interactions. Leveraging reinforcement learning, firms adapt their bidding strategies to maximize profit while accounting for transport costs, disposal penalties, and resource scarcity. Simulation experiments reveal the economic and spatial conditions under which decentralized exchanges converge toward stable and efficient outcomes. Counterfactual regret analysis shows that sellers' strategies approach a near Nash equilibrium, while sensitivity analysis highlights how spatial structures and market parameters jointly govern circularity. Our model provides a basis for exploring policy interventions that seek to align firm incentives with sustainability goals, and more broadly demonstrates how decentralized coordination can emerge from adaptive agents in spatially constrained markets.

arXiv:2602.05888v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Hedonic games are fundamental models for investigating the formation of coalitions among a set of strategic agents, where every agent has a certain utility for every possible coalition of agents it can be part of. To avoid the intractability of defining exponentially many utilities for all possible coalitions, many variants with succinct representations of the agents' utility functions have been devised and analyzed, e.g., modified fractional hedonic games by Monaco et al. [JAAMAS 2020]. We extend this by studying a novel succinct variant that is related to modified fractional hedonic games. In our model, each agent has a fixed type-value and an agent's cost for some given coalition is based on the differences between its value and those of the other members of its coalition. This allows to model natural situations like athletes forming training groups with similar performance levels or voters that partition themselves along a political spectrum. In particular, we investigate natural variants where an agent's cost is defined by distance thresholds, or by the maximum or average value difference to the other agents in its coalition. For these settings, we study the existence of stable coalition structures, their properties, and their quality in terms of the price of anarchy and the price of stability. Further, we investigate the impact of limiting the maximum number of coalitions. Despite the simple setting with metric distances on a line, we uncover a rich landscape of models, partially with counter-intuitive behavior. Also, our focus on both swap stability and jump stability allows us to study the influence of fixing the number and the size of the coalitions. Overall, we find that stable coalition structures always exist but that their properties and quality can vary widely.